Q2 2016 Forex Trade Review and Reflections

Yikes, definitely not a good end to my first half of the trading year! Hopefully the second half is kinder to me and my trading strategy. Here are my goals for the months ahead!

DATE TRADE IDEA P/L in Pips P/L in &
Apr 13 EUR/USD’s Major Resistance at 1.1400 -220 -0.25%
May 18 Stop and reverse: Long EUR/USD -236 -0.37%
May 13 Pre-U.S. Retail Sales Setups: GBP/USD and USD/CHF Canceled Canceled
May 27 EUR/USD’s Trend and USD/CHF’s Resistance Level Canceled Canceled
Jun 01 USD/JPY or GBP/USD? Canceled Canceled
Jun 10 Trading EUR/USD’s Range Resistance +65 +0.0007%
Jun 22 GBP/USD’s Falling Trend Line Retest Canceled Canceled
TOTAL -391 -0.62%

No. of Trade Ideas: 7
Trades Triggered: 3
No. of Wins: 1
No. of Losses: 2
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 33%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: 65 pips (0.0007%)
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: -228 pips (-0.31%)

Okay, I don’t have to look far to pinpoint exactly what went wrong this quarter. Heck, I don’t even have to scroll much!

As you can see from the list above, I fell flat on my face the first few times I tried to embrace my 2016 trading goals. I traded EUR/USD twice and got stuck in the wrong direction both times. Looking back, my biggest mistakes were that I held on to my positions too long instead of cutting my losses and moving on.

The next attempts showed just how much I lost confidence. I had pretty decent setups on the majors, but I failed to jump in, either because the move was exhausted by the time I get my “confirmation” or the initial setup was already invalidated by events that weren’t included in the scope of my initial trading plan.

So, after reviewing all SEVEN of my trade setups for the quarter, I’ve listed down my main issues:

1. Waiting for momentum vs. risking a fakeout – The biggest struggle I had trading the majors in Q2 2016 is that we either get monster moves that can go in either direction in one day or we get a snoozefest for weeks. The Brexit issue, for example, caused multi-hundred-pip rallies and selloffs depending on the day’s headline.

The volatile and the snoozer-type price action didn’t help in pinning down entry points. Do I wait for confirmation and risk missing a chunk of a limited move? Or do I enter early and risk a fakeout? I did both and I got burned twice. Boo!

2. Looking at the big picture – Though the majors saw mostly saw tight intraday conditions, there were actually tons of moves that I could have taken advantage of…if I only knew where to look. I didn’t take advantage of GBP/USD rising because it was against my Brexit-is-the-pound’s-enemy bias. USD/JPY and USD/CHF were also on pretty steady downtrends though they appeared choppy in the shorter time frames. Guess it’s time to check out long-term inflection points before entering my orders, huh?

3. Road to recovery – I read somewhere that the best way to recover from a losing streak is to just start winning trades. I have to admit that my 65-pip win in EUR/USD helped a lot in restoring my eagerness to hunt setups again.

My biggest goals for Q3 2016 is just to take and win trades. I’ll probably won’t focus on my metrics as much as nailing down a process that works for me. Over the next few weeks I’ll work on identifying long-term economic themes and looking for inflection points that might work. Hopefully better research would give me more confidence in my entry levels and give me the winning trades that I need. Oh, and I’m also considering expanding the pairs under my watch. Maybe start looking at long-term trends on the other pairs?

How about you? Got any issues that you’re planning to work on in Q3 2016? Don’t hesitate to give a shoutout! 🙂

XOXO,

Huck

P.S.: Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade and to adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t follow what I do. Better yet, read the Risk Disclosure!

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