Was that fast or what! Now that we’ve survived the first three months of the year, it’s time to compare notes and take a close look and review our closed forex trades. Here are my numbers!
Last December I made promises to get back in the game and take on more trades in 2016. Well, I certainly did that in the first quarter! Not surprisingly though, it felt like being a forex newb all over again.
Heck, did I really just gain 429 pips but incurred a net DECREASE of 0.32% for the quarter? I also lost more trades than I won and, despite the positive pips, my numbers also yielded a NEGATIVE trading expectancy. Noooooo!!!
|DATE||TRADE IDEA||P/L in Pips||P/L in &|
|Jan 07||USD/CHF Retracement Near Parity!||-98||-0.46%|
|Jan 13||GBP/USD Pullback in the Works?||Canceled||Canceled|
|Jan 21||USD/JPY Downtrend Still On?||-121||-0.14%|
|Feb 05||GBP/USD’s Downtrend Retracement||429||0.14%|
|Feb 16||Will USD/JPY’s Downtrend Continue?||300||0.30%|
|Mar 03||Another GBP/USD Retracement!||Canceled||Canceled|
|Mar 17||Riding EUR/USD’s Uptrend!||-89||-0.16%|
|Mar 31||USD/CHF’s Downtrend Retracement||–||–|
No. of Trade Ideas: 8
Trades Triggered: 6
No. of Wins: 2
No. of Losses: 3
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 40%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: 365 pips (0.22%)
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: -103 pips (-0.25%)
After reviewing all of my trades above, I’ve identified that the first and most glaring booboo is cutting my winners and letting my losers run. Classic trader mistake, but one I should have watched for the most.
My GBP/USD and USD/JPY trades yielding 429 and 300 pips respectively could have gained tons more if I had pressed instead of closing them at the initial profit targets. After all, there were no catalysts to end the strong trends at the time. Meanwhile, my USD/CHF trade was closed near its original stop loss level and my USD/JPY and EUR/USD trades were closed later than their invalidation points.
Another thing I need to work on is to not rely on technical analysis too much, especially when I’m trading trends anyway. I missed out on a good GBP/USD move after waiting for a perfect entry and closed a valid EUR/USD uptrend idea when it broke a short-term trend line that I was watching. Boo!
Moving forward, now that I know that I CAN take on more trades, I have to focus on my execution. I can start with the risk % that I take per trade, which got inconsistent after I added balance to my trading account.
I ended up too being cautious and it resulted to low % yield despite the tons of pips that I gained. I’ll also work on being consistent with the main time frames that I look at and make sure that I have a clearer system for identifying my stop and profit levels. Last and most important, I’ll work on bringing my trading expectancy up so I’ll be confident that my taking on more risk isn’t bringing my account a slow and steady death.
That’s it from me today!
How about you? How are your Q1 2016 trading numbers? Do you think you’ve made progress on your trading goals for the year? Let me know if you have any tips or stories to share!
P.S.: Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade and to adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t follow what I do. Better yet, read the Risk Disclosure!