I thought about not doing pre-market analyses anymore but I guess you guys really like looking at setups. So without further ado, here are my thoughts on today’s currency scene and my two chosen major setups for this week. Enjoy!
As Forex Gump and Pip Diddy have been mentioning in their posts, the lack of major economic catalysts are inspiring central banks to get busy at talking down their currencies. The ECB officials, in particular, have been giving speeches left and right about how they’re not out of options. RBA Governor Stevens also took advantage of the AUD bears’ momentum when he timely revealed that a currency intervention is on the table. Of course, we can’t forget that some Fed members are back to hinting at tapering some time soon.
Surprisingly, it’s the yen bears that have been the most successful in their cause so far. Thanks to an upside break in USD/JPY’s technical levels, Nikkei gaining ground, and the BOJ promising that they’ll act “if needed,” there’s no stopping the yen bears yet. Let’s see who wins this week’s Race to Debase!
I’m watching GBP/USD closely to see who will win the battle for supremacy. Fundamentally I think that GBP still has a lot of room to rise especially since the U.K. has generally been printing better-than-expected data. Maybe I’ll wait for the pair to break above the 1.6200 before I enter any long trades. Of course, I should also be ready in case Carney’s speech this week inspires the pound bulls to wake up!
USD/CHF: Cautiously Bearish
I’m overall bullish on the dollar (except against EUR, GBP, and NZD) but I have to say that the falling channel and SMAs are convincing me to at least consider a USD/CHF short. I think a short trade is worth it around the .9130-.9150 area since it’s close to the SMAs, the falling channel resistance, and an area of interest. What do you think?