Long EUR/USD at 1.3500?

Trade Update: November 12, 2013 | 4:50 am
I guess it’s just not meant to be! Last week Draghi and his team surprised the markets with a 25 basis point interest rate cut. Not only that, but he also jawboned a bit and hinted at more “downside risks!” Not surprisingly, EUR/USD fell like there’s no tomorrow. It broke below the 1.3500 handle that we were watching and only encountered support around the 100 SMA.

EURUSD (1)

This is why I’m holding off from my long EUR/USD bias for now. I know that the oversold Stochastic, 100 SMA, and 61.8% Fib support are still valid, but I think that the ECB’s dovish tone and the Fed’s lack of conviction to delay tapering are reason enough to not force a long trade. Maybe if the market themes change and there are tempting bullish candlesticks?

That’s it for me today! All this talk is making me think of reversing my bias. I’ll let you know if I find a good setup!

Trade Idea: November 6, 2013 | 3:50 am

Found a good setup this week! EUR/USD’s 1.3500 psychological handle is holding like a boss on the daily chart and Stochastic is also showing a possible bullish divergence. Oh, and I’m also seeing a possible trend line support!

EURUSD

As cool as the possible risk ratio on this trade is though, I’m not too excited over entering at market. For one thing, the ECB interest rate decision is only a day away. And if the recent ECB officials’ speeches are to be believed, then we might hear plans for more ECB stimulus.

For now I’ll just watch the pair and wait for opportunities to enter around the ECB decision. I might jump in and risk 0.5% of my account if it breaks above this week’s highs or if it breaks below the rising trend line. Of course, I’ll also have to keep in mind that any move might not be sustained until the end of the week since we could see profit-taking ahead of the U.S. NFP report.

What do you think of my plans? Any suggestion is welcome!

XOXO,

Huck

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  • ed

    Hello,
    I saw the horizontal line and I am planing to enter, but I am also waiting for the ECB, lets see what they say and then place an order.
    Happy trading

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Yep, that’s my plan too! Good luck to our trades! 🙂

  • darthfrancis

    I’m already in when this formed a big old bullish pin bar on the 4 hour chart 2 days ago right bang on a key horizontal level and at a swing low.

    Who needs indicators?

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Good for you! Where were you able to enter? Have you moved your stops yet? We might see some crazy spikes today… 🙂

    • James

      You need to learn from “Pip Daddy” my friend LOL.

      • Hucklekiwi Pip

        Do you mean Pip Diddy? Haha yes, he gives good forex advice 🙂

  • Nick

    Based on the above chart and my observation, I sell today at the pair below 1.3540 and my target to take profit at 1.3480 and 1.3465.

    I’m bearish short for this pair.

    Please update this tomorrow!

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      How’s your trade so far? I’m thinking of just entering positions after the ECB’s decision. I’ll keep you posted when I have my trades on! 🙂

      • Nick

        Hello,

        Thanks for posting..

        If we can see my post above.. My expectations are active and remain valid by selling the EUR/USD pair and thanks I’m taking a good profit right now..

        Please let me know your trades.. How about there?

        Regards,

        • Hucklekiwi Pip

          Hey Nick! I decided to cancel my orders for now. Great job at shorting the pair though! Are you still in the trade? 🙂

          • Nick – SamuraiFXTrader

            Hi Huck! Good to hear that you have cancelled your plan. I already take profits on EUR/USD by selling on that day. So since yesterday, i am holding my USD/JPY by buying at 99.80 after seeing a internal trendline breakout on a daily chart and waiting to reach into my target to take profit at 100.05. This time it reaches to highest resistance level but i stil remain neutral or holding my trade because i did not see any reversal selling signal on USD/JPY on 60 minutes chart. So, i am waiting for the confirmation right now. At this time i am making a good profit but I’m still holding my trade. Thank you for the response and i will add you on my friend list asap. Cheers!

          • Nick

            Hello Huck.. Today, i would prefer to sell short on EUR/USD once it reaches below 1.3260 after a 60 minutes chart closing and by taking at 1.3260. I would prefer to sell it short today. But that’s only my idea. If someone take it, be sure to put a stop-loss.

            Good luck

            Cheers!

  • Dr Terence Palmer

    Three news releases all at the same time is a bit tricky. Price could go anywhere.

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      I agree. Central bank speeches are particularly tricky.

  • Dr Terence Palmer

    ECB just dropped its interest rate to 0.25% and blew technical traders out of the water.

    • James

      Thats why quantitative trading is the way to go.

      • Ryan

        Oh really? That’s funny, because.. my technical analysis was bearish and gave me a huge gain on this pair

    • FxSniper

      I don’t understand how it blew technical traders out of the water. I was short a day before the release on simple price action reading. It wasn’t that hard to figure out, yet I was ready for the opposite move too.

    • FxSniper

      I like to add that I am now long again and will be targeting 1.3700 by friday

  • Nick

    My expectations are active and remain valid by selling the EUR/USD pair and thanks I’m taking a good profit right now..

    Cheers!

  • Dr Terence Palmer

    I have given up on using technicals and only trade the news expectations. Pre-news sentiment on a 5m chart with a 20 MA is very rarely wrong.

    • James

      Have you seen the scene with kendra lust? It’s also “very rarely wrong”.

      • Dr Terence Palmer

        Sorry, I’m not familiar with the term. What is it?

        • Jax

          Dr T, so in other words you are a scalper then? Do you find that works better for you than long term technical trading? Cheers

  • croooner

    🙁 i went long on it. cuz i just know how to read fundamental data.

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Hey crooner! You can start reading the technical section of the School of Pipsology (http://www.babypips.com/school) so you’ll also have technical analysis on your arsenal on your next trades! 🙂

  • Dr Terence Palmer

    In reply to Jax, for me the news is the market mover. Using technical indicators and price action patterns only tells me what the market did and any indication of what the market will (may) do is a gamble. But trading ‘with the market’ in the direction that is determined by the news is not gambling but ‘going with the flow’. So, chart patterns can only be seen to be a true representation of the market in retrospect. Since I started experimenting with news trading my success rate and confidence have blossomed. Thanks for the question. PS. I see no reason for anonymity.

    • Jac De Villiers

      no more anonymity Dr T:_) Thanks for the response. What time frames do you look at & do you use stop losses? For news trading, I would imagine you first have to wait a few minutes before entering and hope for very bad news to sell or very good news to buy.Cheers

  • Dr Terence Palmer
  • FxSniper

    Best time to be long EURUSD once more! I m running for at least 1.37 from current rates. Just when you think it is dead, the Eur will announce a marathon just so you won’t be in any doubt that she is very much alive. USD is strong and going up at least against the universal weakling; the yen, Euro is strong and going up… curious? At least that’s what the charts say to me at this time. So, Im long with eurcad