HLHB Weekly Update – November 5, 2010

EUR/USD 4-hour Chart

If there’s anything that sold off faster than Taylor Swift’s new album this week, it’s the U.S. dollar!

The FOMC statement, which was pretty much the main event of the week, showed that the central bank decided to pull the trigger on QE2. Yep, that’s right, QE2 and not QE lite. In fact, the Fed even decided to purchase 100 billion USD more Treasuries than the market expectation at 500 billion USD. Sure, the Fed emphasized that these purchases would be spread over the next eight months, but it looks like traders just lost their appetite for Greenbacks. QE is still QE, no matter how you spin it!

It looks like the Fed is the sole central bank in Dove Town, as other central banks took the exact opposite stance – or are at least thinking of joining the Hawks.

The Aussie was looking fly like a G6 this week after the RBA surprised the markets with a 25-basis point rate hike. Meanwhile, the BOE and ECB are now leaning towards tightening their own monetary policies. All they have to do is work through the economic challenges, such as the planned budget cuts for the U.K. and the debt woes in the euro zone, then they can start being more aggressive. Easier said than done, but hey, at least things are looking up for their economies.

And now, on to the results of my HLHB system.

As you can see, after I did my HLHB weekly update last Friday, my system had two crossovers. Both crossovers were invalid though, as the Stochastic wasn’t in the right area.

For the first one, the Stochastic was already oversold, which meant I couldn’t take the long trade. As for the second one, I couldn’t take the trade because the Stochastic wasn’t between 20 and 50.

While I was saved twice by filters, it also caused me to miss EUR/USD’s move up. The third crossover, which happened late in the U.S. trading session last Friday, was valid, but the following candle DID NOT go beyond 30-pips the high of the crossover candle.

All good though! I’d miss one trade if it means avoiding two losses!

For now, I just gotta get through the last day of the working week then I can finally enjoy the weekend! And guess what everybody? Conan’s back! Can’t wait to watch his show! He’s hilarious!

That’s all for now! Thanks for reading my blog! Don’t forget, there’s that NFP report coming out tonight! Hope you don’t get burned by any nasty spikes!

10 comments

  1. TraineePiptologist

    Huck,

    First off, still loving your work on here. Your style and methods are very accessable. This suits me as I work full time and can’t devote as much time as I would like to improve my trading.

    A quick query, and the reason for my post…

    The third crossover would have been profitable for you. Could you please explain why the filter has to be 30 pips above the high of the crossover candle? Would removing or reducing it would increase your wins?

    Thanks again,

    Trainee P

    Reply
  2. TraineePiptologist

    Huck,

    First off, still loving your work on here. Your style and methods are very accessable. This suits me as I work full time and can’t devote as much time as I would like to improve my trading.

    A quick query, and the reason for my post…

    The third crossover would have been profitable for you. Could you please explain why the filter has to be 30 pips above the high of the crossover candle? Would removing or reducing it would increase your wins?

    Thanks again,

    Trainee P

    Reply
  3. Hucklekiwi PipHuck

    @TraineePiptologist

    The 30-pip filter is there to avoid whipsaws. In my backtesting, I discovered that putting that filter will save me more than make me miss trades!

    Reply
  4. Hucklekiwi PipHuck

    @TraineePiptologist

    The 30-pip filter is there to avoid whipsaws. In my backtesting, I discovered that putting that filter will save me more than make me miss trades!

    Reply

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