HLHB Weekly Update – February 12, 2010

PoD Chart

Wow! Lots of signals this week – I got 4 this time around! Good thing, my 30-pip filter saved me from a lot of losses. Unfortunately, one managed to get through and burn me!

This week was full of signals for my HLHB system, as EURUSD movement was pretty choppy. This was probably because of the news regarding Greece (more on that later!). Luckily for me, I didn’t trigger on the first two signals as both did not reach the 30 pip entry filter and the pair did not shoot off in either direction.

On the third signal however, a long order got triggered at 1.3778. However, it turned out to be a fake out as the pair only went as high as 1.3802 before heading south! In line with my system rules, I got stopped out at 1.3670, which is 10 pips below the low of the candle before the crossover candle. This left me with a loss of 108 pips… Ouch! Also, it turns out that when I got stopped out, a new crossover formed but I didn’t get triggered on this as price didn’t reach the 30 pip filter once again.

Even though I lost this week, it seems that the 30 pip filter does help me avoid fake outs. Had I a lower pip filter, I would have gotten triggered two more times and I would have lost both! Also, my stop loss rule prevented me from incurring bigger losses. So while I’m sad that I ended the week with a loss, at least I know that my system rules are helping me stay alive.

As for this week’s price action, most anti-dollars except the euro edged higher (quite unsteadily, might I add) on improved risk sentiment. Greece’s debt situation, the usual culprit for the recent runs of risk aversion, still remains unsettled even after hearing news of a possible bailout plan from Germany. It sounds to me that the European leaders are being fickle-minded – first they say that they to help, then they say that no concrete plans have been laid out. This kept traders on their feet, switching back and forth before between risk on and risk off. As Forex Gump pointed out in his recent article, how long will they wait for this situation to boil over before finally stepping in?!

Since it’s almost Valentines day, let me share a little something… It’s probably just a personal bias of mine but I do have a problem with guys waiting too long before mustering the guts to make a move. Hearts Day is just a few days from now and this guy I’ve been seeing recently still hasn’t asked me out for a date on Valentine’s! I’m looking forward to watching the movie “Valentine’s Day” this weekend and a girls’ night out doesn’t seem like a bad idea. After all, with hotties like Eric Dane, Patrick Dempsey, and Bradley Cooper starring, who needs an actual date?!