HLHB Weekly Update – February 5, 2010

PoD Chart

Note: Before reading my system update below, I suggest you go over the HLHB system rules so you know what I’m talking about.

The HLHB system this week brought me both good news and bad news.

Let me start with the good news. As you can see from the chart, the first crossover this week turned out to be a huge fake out, as the pair dropped steeply two candles after. Thankfully, stochastics was already well above the 80 mark, preventing me from going long. Phew – that was close!

Moving on to the bad news, you can see that I was unable to capitalize on the EURUSD short on the following crossover. According to the HLHB rules, the candle after the crossover must first fall 30-pips before I can jump in. In this case, price only went seven measly pips beyond the low of the crossover candle, which kept me from going short.

After a couple of days of no clear direction, fear finally caught up in the markets, causing a massive bloodbath in the streets yesterday. While I don’t know what exactly stirred the European markets yesterday, the anxiety over there plus the dismal jobless claims here in the US seems to have sparked risk aversion. This helped the dollar and yen, as they rose against all other major currencies.

While I’m a little sad that I missed out on the nice down move, I understand that it happens. Besides, my system rules saved me from a potential loss, much like Big Mike in The Blind Side. What a lovely movie! Sandra Bullock definitely deserves her nomination for an Academy Award!

Shout out to Happy Pip – good job on your trades! Let’s celebrate? Girl’s night out!!

  • pakiestra

    Hey Huck, Seems like you trying to build up a mechanical system, it’s ok cause some of them work but there is one BIIIG BUT(T) :o)) Your system relies on trading with the trend, it’s perfectly ok. The problem is when you trade trend it’s roughly only 30% of the time, the rest of time markets spend in ranging unfortunatley. Then your EMA’s SMA’S and other trend indicators will be crossing over and over again, entries can also be triggered just on another candle to fire the stop loss. I don’t want to bash on you hard just food for thought. Unless your occassional winners are able to erase losses from ranging market and you can demonstarte it. Did you try honestly backtest the system taking into account lets say 1 month period ? I would be very interested what conclussions you have drawn out of this testing. Hope this will help you to fine tune it.Unless you have a method of avoiding a ranging markets.Regards for all your efforts.

  • pakiestra

    Hey Huck, Seems like you trying to build up a mechanical system, it’s ok cause some of them work but there is one BIIIG BUT(T) :o)) Your system relies on trading with the trend, it’s perfectly ok. The problem is when you trade trend it’s roughly only 30% of the time, the rest of time markets spend in ranging unfortunatley. Then your EMA’s SMA’S and other trend indicators will be crossing over and over again, entries can also be triggered just on another candle to fire the stop loss. I don’t want to bash on you hard just food for thought. Unless your occassional winners are able to erase losses from ranging market and you can demonstarte it. Did you try honestly backtest the system taking into account lets say 1 month period ? I would be very interested what conclussions you have drawn out of this testing. Hope this will help you to fine tune it.Unless you have a method of avoiding a ranging markets.Regards for all your efforts.

  • Huck

    Yes, I have back tested it. :) You can see the results here: /blogs/loonie-adventures/hlhb_system_makeover.html

    You’ll also notice that I try to avoid whipsaws by putting a 30-pip filter (and stochastics) to avoid entering a ranging market. :)

  • Huck

    Yes, I have back tested it. :) You can see the results here: http://www.babypips.com/blogs/loonie-adventures/hlhb_system_makeover.html

    You’ll also notice that I try to avoid whipsaws by putting a 30-pip filter (and stochastics) to avoid entering a ranging market. :)