HLHB Weekly Update – July 31, 2013

EUR/USD

EUR/USD 1-hour Chart

While the rest of the world partied in Tomorrowland, I’m here anguishing over the terrible performance of the HLHB Trend-Catcher 3.0 on EUR/USD. Twelve signals were generated but none of them turned out to be winners. In fact, in the 5 valid signals, all were losers. Below is the list of all the crossovers that materialized and their corresponding results:

1. Short at 1.3184. Closed at 1.3192 when a new crossover materialized. -8 pips.
2. Long at 1.3192. Closed at 1.3185 when a new crossover materialized. -7 pips.
3. Invalid short signal since the RSI was above 50.0.
4. Invalid long signal. The RSI was already above 50.0 prior the upward crossover.
5. Short at 1.3206. Closed at 1.3240 when the 50-pip trailing stop was hit. -34 pips.
6. Long at 1.3243. Closed at 1.3207 when the 50-pip trailing stop was hit. -36 pips.
7. Short at 1.3206. Closed at 1.3211 when a new crossover formed. -5 pips.
8. Invalid signal since the RSI was already above 50.0 prior the crossover.
9. Invalid short signal. The RSI was above 50.0.
10. Invalid long signal. The RSI was already above 50.0 prior the crossover.
11. Invalid short signal. The RSI was above 50.0.
12. Invalid long signal. The RSI was already above 50.0 before the crossover occurred.

Total loss: -90 pips

GBP/USD

GBP/USD 1-hour Chart

Basically the same thing happened on GBP/USD. The system was just unable to handle the volatility and the choppiness of the market and incurred a handful of fakeouts that turned into losses. Here are all the signals that materialized during the week.

1. Invalid short signal since RSI was above 50.0.
2. Long at 1.5367. Closed at 1.5357 due to a new crossover. -10 pips.
3. Short at 1.5357. Closed at 1.5373 due to a new crossover. -16 pips.
4. Long at 1.5373. Closed at 1.5340 due to a new crossover. -33 pips.
5. Short at 1.5340. Closed at 1.5336 due to a new crossover. +4 pips.
6. Long at 1.5336. Closed at 1.5337 when the 50-pip trailing stop was hit. +1 pip.
7. Short at 1.5279. Closed at 1.5319 when the 50-pip trailing stop was hit. -40 pips.
8. Long at 1.5333. Closed at 1.5385 when the 50-pip trailing stop was hit. +52 pips.
9. Short at 1.5370. Closed at 1.5393 due to a new crossover. -23 pips.

Total loss: -71 pips

The HLHB Trend-Catcher is really taking a toll due to the summer. Trading volume is very low, which is causing price action to be choppy. Ahhh… I guess I just have to weather the storm until price action trends again! Hopefully, price action trends again sooner rather than later.

XOXO,

Huck

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