Trade Update: Make or Break for USD/JPY

So close! USD/JPY has been flirting with the 100.00 profit target all week and I’m not sure if I should wait for the pair to hit the psychological area. What do you think?

Original Trade Idea: Make or Break for USD/JPY

Entry Update: Make or Break for USD/JPY

Looks like I’m on the right side of the trade on this particular setup! As I’ve mentioned a few days ago, I jumped in on USD/JPY’s downtrend after spotting a cool Fib opportunity on the daily chart.

USD/JPY: Daily Forex Chart

USD/JPY: Daily Forex Chart

Gotta admit, it wasn’t easy holding on to the positions especially in the days leading up to the BOJ’s decision. I mean, have you seen the crazy spikes all due to speculations? Luckily, Dr. Pipslow’s piece on mixing up time frame analyses reminded me that what is catalyst for short-term traders could just be noise to long-term trades like this one.

Lo and behold, the BOJ DID disappoint market players. Instead of pulling a Bernanke and using Helicopter Money, it only upped its ETF purchases and created a program for dollar-denominated lending. This resulted in a bloody day for USD/JPY where it fell from 106.00 to the 102.50 area.

Fast forward to today and now I’ve moved my stop loss to 103.00, locking in +106 pips for the first position and +300 pips for the second one. That’s about +0.40% of my account from an initial risk of 0.50%!

Right now I’m considering the possibility of USD/JPY reaching the 100.00 mark. Abe has already announced his (underwhelming) stimulus plan and not even this week’s risk aversion was enough to drag the pair lower.

Should I wait for the pair to drop to the level or should I take profits now? Any advice would be very much appreciated!



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  • Ian Worthington

    Hi, Just finished the school yesterday (finally!) and I am living in Japan so it makes sense to follow this pair (somewhat). Am I alone in thinking this may bounce back up around now?

    • Congrats on finishing the School and hello from the other side, Ian! Now I’m craving ramen and okonomiyaki haha.

      Good call about the pair’s reversal! It went down to 99.55 but it’s now about 350 pips above the 100.00 level. Did you take any USD/JPY trades or any demo trades during this week?

      • Ian Worthington

        Sorry for the late reply, I did and I made a killing (on demo money)! I am doing quite bad this last month though, but have barely had any free time to sit down and analyze what I’m doing wrong. (I’m not writing a journal as I do most of my trading on my phone on my way to work!)

        • Congrats on your paper profits! I went with you and bought the pair just above the 103.00 area. How far up do you think the pair will go this year?

  • Thanks for your two cents! You’re right, it did crack the 100.00 mark and even hit 99.55 before encountering buyers. Fortunately managed to hold on to my positions (after serious adjustments to my stops) and were able to profit from the level. Phew!

    How about you? Did you have any trades on USD/JPY? 🙂