Falling Channel Trade on USD/JPY

Hey guys! This week I’m looking at this sweet setup on USD/JPY!

I’ve been waiting for an opportunity to buy the yen since the BOJ held off from more stimulus. You see, Kuroda and his team not only maintained their current policies, but they also remained upbeat about Japan’s export activity, capital expenditures, and the economy in general. And with the dollar barely reacting to the FOMC meeting minutes and the latest U.S. reports, USD/JPY could move to the tune of the yen’s price action.

USD/JPY 4-Hour Forex Chart

USD/JPY 4-Hour Forex Chart

On the technical side, USD/JPY is currently having trouble breaking above the 102.00 area. In fact, it’s even finding resistance at the 101.80 levels, which is right smack at the 100 SMA resistance on the 4-hour time frame. Not only that, but Stochastic is also sitting at the overbought territory. Do you think this signals a sell for the bears?

I’m thinking of selling 0.25% at market and placing another order at the 200 SMA (near 102.00) and a profit target at 101.50. Or I could sell 0.50% now and place the same stop and profit targets for a simpler trade.

What do you think? Should I wait for 102.00 or is it okay to short at market? Thanks for any advise!



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  • ForExchange

    Hi Huck,

    I usually say if I don’t agree with some part of your analysis but this time it looks great to me! I also take it! Everything lines up great!

    I definitely do not want to say what you should do or where to enter the market, for sure you make the right decision.

    I would advice something else, you can decide you do it or not. Very often I think traders make more money from your analysis than you:-) If you have your strategy, analysis line up then go for it!

    Like babypips school says in one part: “You missed the boat Jack!” If you are confident, go with it. If not then just live it.

    I wish good trade for both of us!

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Thanks for the reminder lol 🙂

      Right now I’m closely watching 102.00 and waiting for reversal candlesticks. Stochastic is still in the overbought region so I’m not too excited about pulling the trigger just yet.

      Are you planning to enter USD/JPY trades next week? 🙂

  • BuddhaTrader

    Hi Huck,

    what you are saying makes sense however why would you think that the guppy has been so bullish on a fundamental level?

    also can you kindly explain what you mean when you said “selling .25%” or “.50%” at market. what are you referring to? I cannot seem to understand it’s context.


    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Heya BuddhaTrader!

      I meant 0.25% or 0.50% of my account. With my recent losses and misses I’m not too confident to risk a full 1% position on my trades yet. I’m working on it though!

      Can you clarify the guppy question? Did I say something about GBP/JPY in my previous posts that I might have missed?

      Thanks! 🙂

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