Forex Trade: USD/CHF’s Rising Channel Bounce

Another week, another chance to buy the dollar?

As I mentioned in my tweet yesterday, I bought USD/CHF at market (.9662) a couple of hours into the U.S. session.

USD/CHF 1-Hour Forex Chart

USD/CHF 1-Hour Forex Chart

Fundamentally I’m still bullish on the dollar. Last Friday’s NFP report might not have been as fantastic as markets had been expecting, but it was still pretty strong. Still enough to support speculations that we’ll see a rate hike from the Fed in early 2015, I think.

Another reason why I went long on the pair is that I’m expecting to see at least some CHF weakness with EUR/CHF so close to the 1.2000 mark. I’m not too excited over buying the euro, so I think USD/CHF is a pretty good substitute.

I went long when I saw that the pair had bounced from not only the bottom of a rising channel on the 1-hour chart, but also a 200 SMA support and the .9600 major psychological handle.

I risked two positions for a total of 0.5% of my account at .9662 and placed a 70-pip stop just below the support levels that I mentioned. I’m thinking of taking profits at the .9750 area just at the top of the channel I’m watching.

What do you think? Does USD/CHF still have room to rise or is the dollar’s rally over?

Your two cents are welcome!

XOXO,

Huck

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  • ForExchange

    Hi Huck,

    Very good question in the end about the rising USD. I actually expect a retracemet but your argument about CHF is great. For the same reason (the 1.20 EUR/CHF) I am also selling the CHF but vs. comdolls. Interesting how little value the EUR/CHF 1.20 gets but it is a quite important meaning and offers actually a very good risk/reward trade. So for this situation I do think it is a good trade to go long with the USD.

    Good luck,
    FE