Update: Retracement Trade on USD/JPY

Glad I didn’t pull the trigger on this one! Last week I was thinking of buying USD/JPY on a Fib and mid-channel support.


I held back from pulling the trigger because I also saw a potential falling trend line on the lower time frames. In addition, the SMAs weren’t supporting my “trend” trade at the time and I promised in my Q4 2013 trade review that I wouldn’t go against my SMAs! Last but not the least, I was seeing that traders weren’t as excited for the dollar as they were in December.

Fundamentally I still believe that the dollar is in for more gains. I guess it’s just a matter of timing. But hey, it looks like USD/JPY is now testing the BOTTOM of the rising channel. What do you think? Is it time to buy?



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  • ForExchange

    Hi Huck!

    I like your analysis but I do not know what are you waiting for? 🙂 I mean the news were a bit in favor of the JPY but as you say the trend is clear and I already made an entry with stop loss. In case it moves now to the direction of the uptrend I do not want to miss any pips. In case I am wrong, I will be out of the trade soon. I guess you made all the necesserily information, now what matters is not to lose time! In my opninion the trend will be definitely continued very soon and the USD will strengthen.

    Best wishes and I am interested to read your answer

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Glad to hear we both have the same biases! Right now I’m still waiting for a sentiment shift. I’m not seeing market events that put the spotlight back to USD so it might be hard for USD/JPY to reverse an intraweek trend. Maybe when the FOMC statement is released?

  • JavaTrader

    Wow, I’m joining the same wagon then.
    The overall Trend is STRONGLY UP for USD/JPY
    And it hasn’t find any ‘healthy’ pull back, ’til yesterday.
    Will wait for a little bounce back and jump on it.

    Yes, there will be big FOMC news on Thursday, could be dangerous though since there could be any announcement about further tapering in US.

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      It’s currently finding support just below 103.00 but yeah, unless you have a wide stop it’s a little risky putting on positions ahead of the FOMC news 🙂