Weekly Trading Prep: August 8 – 12, 2016

Time to take a look at dollar pairs this week! Where are the possible inflection points and what are the potential catalysts for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF?

Weekly Inflection Points to Watch

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

Open Price 1.1081 1.3079 102.00 0.9801
Last Week’s High 1.1235 1.3373 102.85 0.9832
Last Week’s Low 1.1046 1.3022 100.68 0.9633
Top Weekly ATR 1.1179 1.3279 103.52 0.9895
Bottom Weekly ATR 1.0984 1.2880 100.49 0.9707

1-Hour Charts of the Majors

Purple Line: weekly open prices
Blue Line: weekly highs and lows
Red Line: top and bottom weekly ATRs
Blue MA: 100 SMA
Red MA: 200 SMA

EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

USD/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

USD/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

USD/CHF 1-hour Forex Chart

USD/CHF 1-hour Forex Chart

3 Potential Catalysts:

1. U.S. Retail Sales – This week we’ll see Uncle Sam’s retail sales report. If the numbers come in better-than-expected, then traders will likely increase their Fed rate hike bets, pushing the dollar and eventually risk appetite higher. If the report disappoints though, then we could see the dollar lose its post-NFP pips across the board.

2. China’s Data Dump – Earlier today China’s trade balance numbers showed a grim outlook. Exports AND imports weakened for another month, fueling concerns that China’s companies are only starting to feel the pinch of weaker domestic and global demand. Over the next few days we’ll see China’s CPI, industrial production, retail sales, and investment numbers. Weak readings could weigh on risk appetite, while upside surprises could boost higher-yielding currencies across the board.

3. Yen’s intraweek trend – Has the yen seen its best days this month? Last Friday’s NFP report has provided a profit-taking spree for the yen bulls. But will they return this week? Or will the bears pounce on the opportunity and sustain a bearish momentum for the rest of the week?

Huck's Signature

P.S.: Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade and to adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t follow what I do. Better yet, read the Risk Disclosure!

See also:

2014 HLHB Trend-Catcher Performance

Follow me on Twitter

Like my page on Facebook

Follow me on MeetPips.com