Weekly Trading Prep: August 1 – 5, 2016

Welcome to another NFP week! Are you ready with your dollar trade setups? Here are potential inflection points and catalysts on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CHF!

Weekly Inflection Points to Watch

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

Open Price 1.1175 1.3229 102.33 0.9693
Last Week’s High 1.1198 1.3303 106.75 0.9951
Last Week’s Low 1.0952 1.3058 101.97 0.9636
Top Weekly ATR 1.1274 1.3434 103.90 0.9778
Bottom Weekly ATR 1.1076 1.3025 100.76 0.9608

1-Hour Charts of the Majors

Purple Line: weekly open prices
Blue Line: weekly highs and lows
Red Line: top and bottom weekly ATRs
Blue MA: 100 SMA
Red MA: 200 SMA

EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart


GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart


USD/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

USD/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart


USD/CHF 1-hour Forex Chart

USD/CHF 1-hour Forex Chart

3 Potential Catalysts:

1. Abe’s Stimulus Decision – After weeks of hinting about it, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to announce the details on his stimulus package this week. His Cabinet is widely expected to make decisions on August 2 and an announcement will likely follow. Will the package be as big as 28 trillion JPY as markets had priced in? More importantly, how will the news affect the yen?

2. U.S. Reports – NFP week means dollar week! For the next few days we’ll see Uncle Sam’s ISM manufacturing report, core PCE price index, and the usual employment-related releases (ADP, Challenger job cuts, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, NFP). Worse-than-expected releases could fuel the dollar’s selloff following the advanced U.S. GDP release. On the other hand, strong reports could support rumors that the Fed could still hike its rates at least once this year. Keep your eyes glued to the tube!

3. BOE Statement – How about now? The biggest reason why the BOE surprisingly didn’t make any changes following the EU referendum results is that it wanted to see the numbers first. Will they pull the trigger and announce more easing measures this month?

That’s it for this first update! Have you marked any potential trade on the majors yet? Don’t hesitate to share!

Huck's Signature

P.S.: Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade and to adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t follow what I do. Better yet, read the Risk Disclosure!
See also:

2014 HLHB Trend-Catcher Performance

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