Q4 2014 Forex Trade Review and Reflections

My trades might have lessened in the past couple of months, but that didn’t stop me from having a great forex trading quarter!

As we can see from the chart below, I mostly made my pips on USD/JPY’s monster moves in Q4 2014. I did try trading other major pairs like USD/CHF and EUR/USD though!

I guess USD/JPY’s uptrend was just the easiest trade idea to spot at the time. The Fed’s relentless updates on its optimism over the economy and its future plans to tighten boosted the Greenback like there’s tomorrow. It also helped that the oil crisis, a bit of risk aversion, and strong U.S. equities performance helped increase demand for the dollar. Last but not the least, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) showed no immediate concern over the yen’s dramatic drops despite USD/JPY’s multi-hundred pip moves.

Those fundamental factors, combined with strong technical trends, helped me get confident over buying USD/JPY. It was also convenient because the pair’s moves coincided with SMA crossover signals, a strategy that I’m most familiar with. Of course, it also didn’t hurt that my efforts in addressing my Q3 2014 trading issues paid off.

Date Trades Gain/Loss
Oct 02 USD/CHF Short-Term Trend Canceled
Oct 23 Another USD/JPY Uptrend in the Works? +4.51%
Nov 03 Short EUR/USD Trade -0.23%
Nov 10 USD/CHF’s Rising Channel Trade -0.30%
Nov 10 USD/JPY Uptrend Trade 2.0 +5.17%
Total Gain / Loss +9.15%

No. of Trade Ideas: 5
Trades Triggered: 4
No. of Wins: 2
No. of Losses: 2
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 50%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: +4.84%
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: -0.27%

Last quarter I had problems with timing my entries and exits. I was able to exercise a bit of discipline with my USD/JPY trades when I only added positions after 150 pips even though I was confident that the pair would reach new highs. I was also quick to get over getting stopped out in my first USD/JPY trade so I was able to put in another set of positions.

Over the next couple of months I will work on looking for good setups on a regular basis and taking on more risks. I don’t think I’ll have much time for trades in Q1 2014, so I’ll focus on longer-term trends. I’ll also have to do better on journaling and updating my trade blogs regularly so you can see what I’m doing and maybe give me some tips if you have them. They’ll be much appreciated!

For now it’s back to coffee world for me. You won’t believe how many coffee junkies need their fix during the holidays!

Hope you’re having a good holiday rest, you guys! I’ll see you next year!

XOXO,

Huck

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