The NFP week was a bust for the HLHB Trend-Catcher System, as it got peppered by fakeouts from both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Here are the deets!
Read all about my HLHB Trend Catcher System if this is your first time hearing about it!
There were no major euro or dollar-related reports scheduled early in the week, so it’s not surprising that EUR/USD traded in a tight range before the NFP release. The pair only started seeing action on Thursday when a couple of weaker-than-expected U.S. reports encouraged profit-taking from long dollar positions. The pair was then propelled to the 1.1250 levels when the better-than-expected NFP headlines came out, but soon saw a move back to its weekly average prices when traders took a closer look at the reports.
The HLHB System did NOT have a good week with EUR/USD, as it only validated 4 out of 10 signals and 3 of them turned out to be fakeouts. Signal #7 would’ve been a pretty good trade if it wasn’t cut short by a new crossover.
Cable wasn’t too different from EUR/USD, as it also saw tight trading conditions for most of the week. As you can see, signal #7 would’ve been the trade of the week if it were not invalidated by the RSI filter. BOO!!! Unfortunately, all the system got from GBP/USD this week were fakeouts, which contributed to a net loss of -113 pips by the end of the week.
Overall the results are what you can expect from using a trend-catcher on a ranging week. Crossing my fingers for stronger trends though! Do you think there’s a dance or ritual I’m missing to get one of those trend-y weeks?
P.S.: Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade and to adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t follow what I do. Better yet, read the Risk Disclosure!
2014 HLHB Trend-Catcher Performance
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