Pre-U.S. Retail Sales Setups: GBP/USD and USD/CHF

Planning on trading the U.S. retail sales report today? I’ve spotted forex trade setups on GBP/USD and USD/CHF that could work in case of upside or downside surprises!


USD/CHF: 4-hour Forex Chart

USD/CHF: 4-hour Forex Chart

As Forex Gump said in his U.S. retail sales trading guide, Uncle Sam’s leading indicators are pointing to a stronger reading in April. More specifically, the headline report is expected to show an 0.8% growth while the core reading is expected to grow by another 0.5%.

Strong retail sales numbers is good for the U.S. economy because a huge chunk of it depends on consumer activity. If we do see better-than-expected figures, then the Greenback will likely gain against its lower-yielding counterparts, if not across the board.

USD/CHF is the perfect pair to trade, as it’s currently being supported by a broken trend line and the 4-hour SMAs. It also doesn’t hurt that stochastic is almost at the oversold area. I’m thinking of buying at market and placing my stops just below the .9600 area. What do you think?


GBP/USD: 4-hour Forex Chart

GBP/USD: 4-hour Forex Chart

Here’s my setup in case the retail sales report disappoints! Aside from the long EUR/USD open trade, GBP/USD could also get a push from a weak dollar. It’s currently being supported by the 50% Fib and the 200 SMA on the 4-hour time frame. Not only that, but the 1.4400 support also lines up with a pretty solid area of interest back in March and mid-April. I’m thinking of buying at current levels and placing my stops just below the rising channel. Maybe aim for the previous highs to start?

How about you? Anyone out there also trading the U.S. retail sales release? What setups are you looking at? Holler if you want to share your two cents!



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  • forzion

    I have now long bias on both now. I use different indicators which showing me that stay long is a good idea now.

    With USD/CHF there is a strong support at 0.9500 and it seems that CHF is slowly weakening after january 2015.

    With GBP/USD I am not so sure but there is not so much room for this pair to move lower, but it can go lower in this enviroment.

    These comments I made only from technical perspective. As we can see the priceaction post US retail sales release was USD rising against both CHF and GBP so the second setup was not so good idea.

    • Thanks for your two cents!

      USD/CHF is steadying at the .9900 after breaking above the .9800 resistance. Do you think this presents a good area to short till the .9500 support that you’re watching?

      GBP/USD has been extraordinarily resilient despite the dollar’s strength last week. I think it’s even showing a rising channel trade opportunity on the 4h time frame. Maybe a long trade with stops below the 200 SMA?

      • forzion

        I personally do not like to short USD/CHF. I do not consider any shorts till it is not near previous highs. SNB was quite succesfull in weakening of CHF in past year and they think it is still too strong. I would rather consider to scale in if it makes correction.

        With GBP/USD there is the dilemma with Brexit now. It can cause huge price fluctuation in any direction. Now my indicators point to north. Key level is around 1,4850 where it can meet mid term falling trend line and we have there descending W50 SMA as well in this area.

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