EUR/USD: Shorting at 1.3000! – Trade Closed

Trade Idea: 2013-6-4 1:40 am EST

EUR/USD 1-hour Chart

Just when I turn on my ranging bias, the pair suddenly trends… UGH!

As you can see, the pair, after testing the 1.3000 level, broke out to the upside and staged a stellar rally. Price went on to make “higher highs” and “higher lows.” What is up with that?!

Stopped out at 1.3060: -60 pips / -1.0%

My discretionary account is getting demolished! Do you have any tips on what I can do to improve my trading moving forward?

Trade Idea: 2013-5-30 1:38 am EST

Without any major economic data on tap this week, I thought I’d play the range on EUR/USD. Here’s my game plan!

EUR/USD 1-hour Chart

On the hourly chart, we can clearly see that EUR/USD has not been able to trade past resistance at 1.3000. I don’t think it would be any different this week.

And so, my game plan is to take advantage of this range we’re seeing. I’ll keep close tabs on the 1.3000 handle and if reversal signs materialize when price tests the level, I will pull the trigger on a short trade.

If I do decide to jump in, I’ll set my stop at 1.3060 and aim for the bottom of the range at 1.2850.

Although the pair is in a range, I decided to side with the bears because of my fundamental bias. Last week, Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke affirmed the market’s earlier suspicions that the central bank would tighten if the economy continues to improve.

It’s also important to note that market participants are starting to have faith in quantitative easing. While the euro zone is in recession, both Japan and the U.S. economies have been improving. These two nations are known for their ultra accommodative monetary policies.

To recap, based on my fundamental and technical analysis, my plan is to:

Sell EUR/USD at 1.3000, stop at 1.3060, PT at 1.2850. 1% risk. Risk disclosure.



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  • Yugrossmann

    I short on 1.30303 and hoping to TP on 1.29955. any suggestions?

  • Nick

    It is baffling for you to me able to sense that the bias for this pair is bullish in your Pre Week Market Analysis yesterday but did noting to close your above short trade when you had the chance just before release of ISM data??? Did you really think that the back will go down to 1.2850 and bounces up again for you to enter a long trade when you did your pre week market anaylsis??? Your strategy is contradicting!

  • MarcusMav

    Looking at the daily charts over the last 2 months, it looks like the range is 1.32 to 1.28 levels, so probably a better idea to range trade that?

  • strictly86

    I think you should try and look at the bigger picture for example if you looked at the daily chart you would have noticed a bullish engulfing day on 29/05/2013, indicating that price was going to move up, which it has done. therefore you should have been buying dips maybe? or waited for a range breakout

  • Senza speranza

    I would wait a little bit, the pair is just over the trend line (daily graph), it could be moving either ways. ATM it looks like it could move up but I’m not that sure about that, 50-50 for me. One or two more days and we’ll have a good trend to follow. 😉