Swing Trading USD/JPY’s Rising Trend Line – All Positions Closed

Trade Update: December 6, 2013 | 3:02 am
Well, it was fun while it lasted! Thanks to the recent yen strength, I’m finally off the USD/JPY rally train!

USDJPY

Thanks to profit-taking ahead of the NFP report, weak Nikkei performance, and yen strength, USD/JPY finally broke its 100 SMA support on the 1-hour chart. I ended up opening 4 positions and a 0.61% trade. I’m kinda bummed that I wasn’t able to exit at the right time though. Boo! A couple of things that I learned:

1. Be consistent with entry parameters- I could have maximized my gains if I had only entered at retracements at the 100 SMA instead of adding positions at breakouts.

2. Be consistent with position sizes – I thought that I was adapting to the environment by getting creative with my position sizes but it only gave me headaches when it’s time to compute overall gains and losses.

3. Watch out for sentiment-changing evens – The trend is our friend…until it ends. I probably should have closed all positions at the beginning of the month (and NFP week!).

Position 1 (0.50%): Closed with +145 pips
Position 2 (0.25%): Closed with +60 pips
Position 3 (0.50%): Closed with -40 pips
Position 4 (0.25%): Closed with -70 pips

Total: +95 pips, +0.61%

Hopefully I’ll get a couple more trades like this (but with better results) before the year ends. On to the next cool setup!

Trade Update: November 28, 2013 | 3:02 am
While my friends are marking their Black Friday purchases, I’m marking my trade orders!

USDJPY

I think I can still take advantage of USD/JPY’s relentless uptrend by adding to my orders. I’m thinking of risking another 0.50% at 102.30, which is above the top weekly ATR and yesterday’s high. If my order gets triggered, I will move the stop of my second position to 101.60 (just below the 100 SMA). This would put my total risk at +0.60%. Not bad, huh?

Position 1 (0.25%): Closed for a 0.91% gain
Position 2 (0.25%): Stop moved to a 0.06% gain
Position 3 (0.50%): Not yet triggered

What do you think? Should I just close all my trades or should I keep my orders? Happy Thanksgiving, guys!

Trade Update: November 22, 2013 | 3:02 am
Time to lock in profits ahead of the weekend!

USDJPY

Thank goodness I was able to jump in on JPY’s selloff! Since I entered a long position early this week the pair has moved above 100 pips or so above my entry. But as much as I’d like to buy and hold, I also think that taking some profits ahead of the weekend would be a good idea.

I took out half of my 0.50% risk at 101.30 when I saw that there was some hesitation at the level. I kept the remaining half though, and placed my stop loss to 100.30 (just above the 100 SMA support that we’re looking at). I also added orders worth 0.50% of my account at 100.50 because I really think that there’s still room for USD/JPY to rise now that it has broken above the triangle on the daily chart. I think the 50% Fib area is a pretty good retracement entry.

That’s it! I probably won’t touching my orders until next week but for now I’ll just watch closely to see if there are any strong moves that could invalidate my trade idea. What do you think?

Trade Idea: November 19, 2013 | 2:59 am
After days of staying on the sidelines, I’m finally taking a chance on USD/JPY!

USDJPY

On a technical basis the pair has just bounced from the rising trend line, which is close to the strong 200 SMA support on the 1-hour chart. Oh, and holler if you also see the bullish divergence!

Fundamentally I think that the dollar still has room to rise against the yen especially since a couple of FOMC members are still scheduled to give speeches this week.

The BOJ will also take center stage in a few days and I hear from Pip Diddy that nobody is expecting the central bank to do anything about the rally in the yen pairs.

I risked 0.5% at market (99.85) and placed my initial stop loss just below the 200 SMA (99.25). My initial profit target is around the previous highs but I’m willing to adjust it depending on the strength of the dollar.

That’s it for me today! I’ll be watching this one closely for opportunities to enter or adjust my stop loss and profit levels. What do you think?

XOXO,

Huck

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  • kiguary

    I’m in!

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Awesome! Good luck to both of us! Where are your PT and SL levels? 🙂

  • KoRkOnY

    I believe it’ll re-test 99.55 before it decides to rally. Earlier today on 4H chart, you can see a failed test for supply which needs to be tested again to be sure that the floating supply has been eliminated.
    Just a thought .. but thanks for your good work 🙂

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      I guess the JPY bears are particularly strong this week. Do you have JPY trades this week? 🙂

  • RootFX

    Newbe question.
    The Bullish Divergence you refer to, is that the the Stochastic?
    My Stochastic (5,3,3) does not show divergence as yours does. Do you have your Stoch graph set up differently?
    BTW, looks like a good trade.

    • Hucklekiwi Pip

      Thanks, RootFX! I use (14,3,3) as my Stochastic setting. Hope this helps!

      • RootFX

        Hi Hucklekiwi, thanks for the info, makes sense now 🙂

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  • jimloko

    Nice, congrats. I’ve just closed my position trading a triangle breakout on the weekly chart. I entered a little later than I wanted but still closed with 220 pips. Only took like 3 weeks 🙂

    Cheers

    • RootFX

      Hi Jimloko, and congrats to you for the nice 220pip gain 🙂
      I’m yet to trade with real money, nearly finished the School of Pipsology, reading lots of other material (too much, it feels like) and I’m gradually making sense of everything!
      One area I worried about is picking the right broker, I seem to research into different ones only to find lots of good & bad feedback/reviews which leaves me confused! Have you any tips on this topic?
      TIA

      • jimloko

        Hi RootFX,

        One thing I’ve found is to take reviews with a grain of salt, or don’t read at all. See people new to fx tend to jump right in with a live account and no idea. So when they blow their accounts it must be the brokers fault and so write a bad review!!

        So try a few brokers and see how you feel. Some you may feel more comfortable with than others. However, make sure that the broker is regulated in your country. This is pretty much a must otherwise they are not bound by a fair trading practice, and more chance of being dodgy.

        Hope this helps,
        Cheers

        • RootFX

          Thanks for the feedback Jimloko.
          It ceratinly makes sense regarding people new to fx posting about issues they’ve had which might not accurately represent the brokers reputation.
          I intend to use ECN brokers rather than M/Makers.
          Cheers
          Danny

  • wonderfully explain in this article really appreciate this thanks for this.

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