Changing My Bias on USD/CHF – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2013-7-3 2:07 am EST

USD/CHF 1-hour Chart

Banking on the Fed’s decision to consider tapering asset purchases this year, I first bought USD/CHF a couple of weeks ago. The dollar didn’t show any signs of stopping so I entered another position last week. I tried to add more positions but my entries were too conservative and they didn’t get triggered. I’m not complaining though!

With the much-anticipated NFP report from the U.S. due this Friday, I decided to just close my trade at .9511 and settle for a 6.20% gain. Woot woot!

Trade details:
Long at .9268 closed at .9511: +243 pips
Long at .9340 closed at .9511: +171 pips
Total Gain: +414 pips / +6.20%

I hope you guys made some pips off the dollar rally too!

Trade Update #2: 2013-6-27 1:13 am EST

USD/CHF 1-hour Chart

Is there still enough fuel for USD/CHF to continue rallying higher? I think so.

On the technical side of things, we see that the pair could soon pull back to around the 50% Fib level and test its previous highs. I’m planning to buy the pair again at .9380 and set my stop below the previous swing low at .9310.

As for my other two positions, I’ve already placed my stops at my second entry (.9340), allowing me to lock in some of profits. Woot!

Trade Update: 2013-6-25 2:42 am EST

USD/CHF 1-hour Chart

I told you last week that I shifted my bias on USD/CHF and pulled the trigger on a long following the hawkish FOMC statement. So far, price has gone my way.

I think that there’s still some fuel left in the dollar. Upon this analysis, I’ve decided to add another position. I bought again earlier at .9340 when I saw that support at the 38.2% Fib level held. Don’t worry, I’ve carefully planned this trade. To limit my risk, I placed both my stops to my initial entry at .9270.

I sure do hope the dollar keeps on trading higher!

Trade Idea: 2013-6-20 9:21 pm EST

A lot can change in a short span of time. For instance, ice can easily melt and become, lovers can just become friends, and my bearish bias on USD/CHF can suddenly turn bullish! A few factors have led me to reconsider my initial bias on USD/CHF. Among them, is the pair’s technical setup.

USD/CHF 1-hour Chart

On the hourly chart, we see that price has strongly rallied past resistance at the SMAs. Since then, it has pulled back some of its gains to its previous resistance level. It is now testing the 100 SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level for support. To top it off, Stochastic is showing a bullish divergence as it make lower lows while price is making higher lows.

Now, as for the fundamentals, things have greatly changed. A few days ago, Ben Bernanke spooked the markets by finally affirming that the Fed could indeed taper off its open-ended quantitative easing by the end of the year if economic data matches its outlook. This caused risk aversion, as it could threaten recovery. After all, it was the Fed’s asset purchase program that supported the economy.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB)‘s statement also supports this directional bias. Yesterday, the SNB pledged once again to defend EUR/CHF’s floor with “utmost determination.” While USD/CHF isn’t EUR/CHF, any bullish bias on EUR/CHF could indirectly support USD/CHF.

To recap, I’ve decided to buy the pair at market (.9267). I placed my stop well below the Fib levels and the SMAs at .9200. Given the change in the dollar’s fundamental outlook, I’ve decided not to set a profit target yet and hopefully catch the entire rally. I’ll risk 1% of my account. Risk disclosure.

XOXO,

Huck

Follow me on MeetPips.com
Follow me on Twitter
Like my page on Facebook