Now that we’re almost halfway into the first quarter of 2014, I thought of doing a little research on the Bloomberg Terminal to find out what the world’s largest banking institutions forecasts are for the major currencies. This might be beneficial for traders who are still working on their trade strategies to end Q1 with more pips!
As you’ve probably noticed from the estimates, most of the majors are already trading near forecast levels. In particular, GBP/USD is already right smack at the 1.6300 mark while NZD/USD is just 50 pips away from its Q1 2014 price estimate. However, with volatility picking up in the past few weeks, there could still be some room for spikes now and then.
As for EUR/USD and USD/JPY though, it appears that banking institutions are expecting a little more movement to cap off the quarter. As of this writing, EUR/USD is trading roughly a hundred pips away from its forecast level while USD/JPY might have 300 pips to go!
Before I let y’all go and catch pips though, a quick disclaimer: These forecasts are merely educated guesses, which means they could change as data changes. After all, nothing is ever certain in the forex market and even the most well-funded, smartest researchers in the world cannot accurately predict where price will be three months from now.
What this implies is that do not base your trades solely on the figures. Instead, use the forecasts as a guide to the big market players‘ sentiment to supplement to your own analysis. By the end of the quarter, I’ll run a quick review of these predictions so y’all better stay tuned!