Q1 2014: The Big Banks’ Exchange Rate Forecasts

Now that we’re almost halfway into the first quarter of 2014, I thought of doing a little research on the Bloomberg Terminal to find out what the world’s largest banking institutions forecasts are for the major currencies. This might be beneficial for traders who are still working on their trade strategies to end Q1 with more pips!

q1-2014-forecastsAs you’ve probably noticed from the estimates, most of the majors are already trading near forecast levels. In particular, GBP/USD is already right smack at the 1.6300 mark while NZD/USD is just 50 pips away from its Q1 2014 price estimate. However, with volatility picking up in the past few weeks, there could still be some room for spikes now and then.

As for EUR/USD and USD/JPY though, it appears that banking institutions are expecting a little more movement to cap off the quarter. As of this writing, EUR/USD is trading roughly a hundred pips away from its forecast level while USD/JPY might have 300 pips to go!

Before I let y’all go and catch pips though, a quick disclaimer: These forecasts are merely educated guesses, which means they could change as data changes. After all, nothing is ever certain in the forex market and even the most well-funded, smartest researchers in the world cannot accurately predict where price will be three months from now.

What this implies is that do not base your trades solely on the figures. Instead, use the forecasts as a guide to the big market players‘ sentiment to supplement to your own analysis. By the end of the quarter, I’ll run a quick review of these predictions so y’all better stay tuned!

  • HutchPod

    Very useful! Was there one for GBP/EUR at all?

    • junaid20054

      kindly tell me about this website how to work on it

      • Forex Ninja

        Thanks for reading my post! The forecasts are from the Bloomberg terminal.

    • Forex Ninja

      Thanks for checking out my blog! Yep I think there was one for EUR/GBP. I’ll take a look and keep you posted…

    • Amit

      Wont the EURGBP forecast be a derived one if its the same set of analysts who have predicted all the above pairs…

  • Seems a little bit weird to me keeping in view the US growth optimism and with FOMC policy makers all set to taper monthly asset purchase program on every policy meeting.

    • Forex Ninja

      Yep, same here! I think the price forecasts were a little conservative given that Yellen will be taking over. Let’s see by the end of the quarter if the big banks got it right!

  • most forecasts i found late december put the yen exactly where it is and they spoke about 105 only by q2 at the earliest. I know sharing sources is not a habit but if you would share those links where you got this im sure everyone would be mucho thanko

    • Forex Ninja

      Hey man! Sorry I couldn’t add any links but I did mention that I got these estimates from the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for checking out my blog!

  • Hey really good stuff here I confess.
    but there’s one area that you mentioned about the largest Hedge Fund in the world. I must say trading is risky.

    • Forex Ninja

      Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Yep, definitely a risky game.

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