About Currency Currents

With Currency Currents, you can stay tuned-in to our current global-macro view and our analysis of key investment themes driving currency prices.

We consistently focus on the key asset classes responsible for the flow of global capital -- including equities, fixed income, commodities and, of course, currencies.

Nothing is off limits to us in this free-wheeling look at the markets. Some days you’ll receive ramblings on trading psychology, while other days we may take an academic approach in explaining esoteric economic issues. Ultimately we have one goal in mind: to help you get a handle on the key investment themes driving global capital flow. Because if you know where the money is going, it increases the probability that your position in the market will be a profitable one.

Who is Jack the Pipper?

Jack Crooks is Black Swan Capital LLC, President and Chief Trading Officer.

Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He has also operated a discretionary money management firm specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients. In addition, he was general partner in a firm specializing in currency futures and commodities trading. Neither firm is now in operation.

Prior to entering the investment arena, Jack worked in various corporate finance positions. He has written extensively on the subject of global currencies and international economics.

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Jobs Friday - Crap shoot of expectations

Posted 08:06 06 March 2009

Key News

The idea that China can grow strongly as the world unravels is a fantasy. (Bloomberg)

Key Reports (WSJ):
8:30 a.m. Feb Non-Farm Payrolls: Expected: -675K. Previous: -598K.
8:30 a.m. Feb Unemployment Rate: Expected: 8%. Previous: 7.6%.
3:00 p.m. Jan Consumer Credit: Expected: -$7.0B. Previous: -$6.6B.

Quotable

Isn't this starting to sound eerily familiar...

"In a higher phase of communist society... only then can the narrow horizon of bourgeois right be fully left behind and society inscribe on its banners: from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs."

Karl Marx

FX Trading - Jobs Friday - Crap shoot of expectations
This is that time when we try to evaluate the expectations about the expectations, i.e. will the jobless number guess prove too low, high, or be about right. This morning it seems the number is supposed to come in worse than expected. And according to headlines this morning, that is why the dollar is lower. So one could say the expectation of the expectation is already in the price. But of course, that is no help whatsoever.

Why? Well the worse the news has been, the better it has been for the dollar on the risk aversion trade. So, the fall in the dollar this morning should reflect a jobs number that will come in better than expected, i.e. the risk appetite trade back in play. So why is worse than expected jobs supporting the dollar according to the headline writers? Who knows?

No matter, better to do right, than be right, good old Jesse Livermore warned us. Step up and take your roll of the dice.

This little expectation mind-pretzel we put together just shows how futile this game can be. A whole bunch of money is bet on these reports and it is a pure crap shoot. Butthen again, maybe this whole game, at least within the short-term time frames is nothing less.

Have a great weekend.