About Currency Currents

With Currency Currents, you can stay tuned-in to our current global-macro view and our analysis of key investment themes driving currency prices.

We consistently focus on the key asset classes responsible for the flow of global capital -- including equities, fixed income, commodities and, of course, currencies.

Nothing is off limits to us in this free-wheeling look at the markets. Some days you’ll receive ramblings on trading psychology, while other days we may take an academic approach in explaining esoteric economic issues. Ultimately we have one goal in mind: to help you get a handle on the key investment themes driving global capital flow. Because if you know where the money is going, it increases the probability that your position in the market will be a profitable one.

Who is Jack the Pipper?

Jack Crooks is Black Swan Capital LLC, President and Chief Trading Officer.

Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He has also operated a discretionary money management firm specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients. In addition, he was general partner in a firm specializing in currency futures and commodities trading. Neither firm is now in operation.

Prior to entering the investment arena, Jack worked in various corporate finance positions. He has written extensively on the subject of global currencies and international economics.

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Has a dollar correction arrived?

Posted 12:06 11 March 2009

Key News

China vehicle sales surged 25 percent in February, the first gain in four months, after the government cut taxes on some models. (Bloomberg)
Russia is "not yet on the brink" of a credit-rating downgrade by Moody's Investors Service as the ruble and foreign reserves stabilize and the government resists taking corporate debt obligations. (Bloomberg)

Quotable

"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving."

Lao Tzu

FX Trading - Has a dollar correction arrived?
Our story, as you know, is not a positive one when it concerns the future of the euro. But, that is our story, and it may at times have little to do with the true story--price action! Mr. Price Action is always the final arbiter.

Watching the euro of late, and the continued ugly news in the background (evaporating German exports, no real cohesion on Central/Eastern Europe rescue, and ECB looking to go lower on rates, the euro has acted very well relative to the news, i.e. old timers might say "the tone of the euro has been good."

And a lot of the Elliott Wave guys have been pecking away at the euro in here, in expectation of a "substantial" correction. And there would be no better time for a decent or substantial euro bounce than now ... as we seem to be entering a bout of risk appetite supported by:

Stocks staging a very big bounce that could have some legs
Bond prices under pressure and specs either shorting or wanting to badly
Oil back in the mid-40's despite no real sign that global demand has picked up anywhere
Emerging currencies staging a bounce higher against the buck
Gold moving lower in line with Mr. Greenback and reaffirming its new positive correlation

EURUSD Daily: