About Currency Currents

With Currency Currents, you can stay tuned-in to our current global-macro view and our analysis of key investment themes driving currency prices.

We consistently focus on the key asset classes responsible for the flow of global capital -- including equities, fixed income, commodities and, of course, currencies.

Nothing is off limits to us in this free-wheeling look at the markets. Some days you’ll receive ramblings on trading psychology, while other days we may take an academic approach in explaining esoteric economic issues. Ultimately we have one goal in mind: to help you get a handle on the key investment themes driving global capital flow. Because if you know where the money is going, it increases the probability that your position in the market will be a profitable one.

Who is Jack the Pipper?

Jack Crooks is Black Swan Capital LLC, President and Chief Trading Officer.

Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He has also operated a discretionary money management firm specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients. In addition, he was general partner in a firm specializing in currency futures and commodities trading. Neither firm is now in operation.

Prior to entering the investment arena, Jack worked in various corporate finance positions. He has written extensively on the subject of global currencies and international economics.

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Elliott Wave vs. Mother Nature ... to decide corn prices.

Posted 11 months ago | 9:23 AM | 03 Jul 2012

Quote

"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell." -Edward Abbey

Of Interest

China's manufacturing growth weakens as new orders drop (Bloomberg)
US manufacturing contraction feeds fear of global slowdown (The Telegraph)
Heatwave threatens US grain harvest (Financial Times)

Commentary

Mother Nature can really whip you. We're not talking about a hurricane, or a tornado that drops your house on a witch - we're talking about a drought that has wreaked havoc on the US corn crop. Bottom line: It doesn't pay to bet against the weather. Corn prices have gone ballistic in the last two weeks as supplies are hurt and further threatened by a heat wave. But the move in corn prices is primarily due to traders running away screaming "Auntie Em! Auntie Em!" ... rather than jumping on any prospects for a sustained bullish uptrend. The short position in corn futures has shriveled up, accounting for 75% of the decline in open positions; the Reuters chart above shows the rising price relative to the falling open interest. What's the next move?

Action

Elliott Wave analysis identifies an expanding wedge as a consolidation pattern to help predict future price direction. This weekly chart of corn, with the expanding wedge I've drawn in, suggests five waves of consolidation may be in and corn prices could fall significantly lower. Without fresh buying interest soon, in the face of a gloomy global economy, the fall could come fast.