About Currency Currents

With Currency Currents, you can stay tuned-in to our current global-macro view and our analysis of key investment themes driving currency prices.

We consistently focus on the key asset classes responsible for the flow of global capital -- including equities, fixed income, commodities and, of course, currencies.

Nothing is off limits to us in this free-wheeling look at the markets. Some days you’ll receive ramblings on trading psychology, while other days we may take an academic approach in explaining esoteric economic issues. Ultimately we have one goal in mind: to help you get a handle on the key investment themes driving global capital flow. Because if you know where the money is going, it increases the probability that your position in the market will be a profitable one.

Who is Jack the Pipper?

Jack Crooks is Black Swan Capital LLC, President and Chief Trading Officer.

Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He has also operated a discretionary money management firm specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients. In addition, he was general partner in a firm specializing in currency futures and commodities trading. Neither firm is now in operation.

Prior to entering the investment arena, Jack worked in various corporate finance positions. He has written extensively on the subject of global currencies and international economics.

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February 2009

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Close but no cigar

Posted 10:21 19 February 2009

Key News

The European Commission on Thursday authorised a temporary German plan to grant aid in the form of reduced interest rates on loans to businesses hit by the credit squeeze. (Reuters)
The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits jumped to 4.99 million two weeks ago. (Bloomberg)

Quotable

"What the caterpillar calls the end, the rest of the world calls a butterfly."

Lao-tzu

FX Trading - Close but no cigar
The US$ Index tested its old high yesterday. The heightened bad news concerning the Eurozone banking system had dollar bulls (like us) looking for a breakout in Mr. Greenie. But, as they say, close but no cigar!

Traders have poured back into the euro today on news that Germany will spend more of its Treasury to support a union to which it is anchored. A couple of questions: 1) Does Germany have enough money to really make a difference given the huge EM banking and southern member fiscal exposure? 2) Will this make any taxpaying citizen of Germany happy?

Today, the market seems to be very happy with the plan….no news yet from German taxpayers.

EURUSD 240-min: Euro up sharply!

Surprising the faith in more of the same fiscal stimulus these big announcements generate, here and abroad. The amount of bad debt in the system overwhelms government coffers. The cold dark reality of debt repudiation is the light at the end of the tunnel in which we stare into, not traction from fiscal and monetary stimulus; we think.

But the reality is bouts of risk appetite can last as long as believers throw money—multi-day, multi-week, multi-month—who knows. We don’t!