About Currency Currents

With Currency Currents, you can stay tuned-in to our current global-macro view and our analysis of key investment themes driving currency prices.

We consistently focus on the key asset classes responsible for the flow of global capital -- including equities, fixed income, commodities and, of course, currencies.

Nothing is off limits to us in this free-wheeling look at the markets. Some days you’ll receive ramblings on trading psychology, while other days we may take an academic approach in explaining esoteric economic issues. Ultimately we have one goal in mind: to help you get a handle on the key investment themes driving global capital flow. Because if you know where the money is going, it increases the probability that your position in the market will be a profitable one.

Who is Jack the Pipper?

Jack Crooks is Black Swan Capital LLC, President and Chief Trading Officer.

Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He has also operated a discretionary money management firm specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients. In addition, he was general partner in a firm specializing in currency futures and commodities trading. Neither firm is now in operation.

Prior to entering the investment arena, Jack worked in various corporate finance positions. He has written extensively on the subject of global currencies and international economics.

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June 2009

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Bad day of the dollar

Posted 07:31 24 June 2009

Key News

Japan’s export dropped 40.9 percent in May from a year earlier, more than April’s 39.1 percent decline, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. (Bloomberg)
The European Central Bank said it will lend banks 442 billion euros ($621 billion) for 12 months as it steps up efforts to unblock credit markets in the 16- nation euro region. (Bloomberg)

Key Reports (WSJ):
7:00 a.m. June 1 Mortgage Refinance Applications: Previous: -23.3%.
8:30 a.m. May Durable Goods Orders: Expected: -1.5%. Previous: +1.9%.
10:00 a.m. May New Home Sales: Expected: +2.6%. Previous: +0.3%.
10:30 a.m. June 1 U.S. Energy Dept Oil Inventories

Quotable

To know that you do not know is the best.
To pretend to know when you do not know is a disease.

Lao-tzu

FX Trading - Bad day of the dollar
We were expecting at least one day of follow-through (actually more) on the green shoot to brown weed re-think, thinking it would benefit the dollar as it did on Monday, but no dice. It seems all attention is back on the Fed and quantitative ease and signs of recovery—QE and recovery both synonymous in traders’ minds to sell the greenback.

Not to let the facts get in the way of anyone’s expectations, knowing we’ve been steamrolled by real prices moved by real peoples’ expectations, but if you didn’t notice in the Key News items above, we wanted to re-iterate and expand a bit:

Japan, one of the world’s MAJOR exporters, just posted a 40.9% DECLINE in exports for the month of May, compared to May last year.

Steel, autos, and semiconductors led the slump
China’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) in stimulus measures haven’t been enough to offset sales declines in the U.S. and Europe.

Ho hum….

Durable goods orders at 8:30 and new homes sales at 10:00, with the verdict from the Fed is delivered at 2:15 p.m. today. Stay tuned.