With Currency Currents, you can stay tuned-in to our current global-macro view and our analysis of key investment themes driving currency prices.
We consistently focus on the key asset classes responsible for the flow of global capital -- including equities, fixed income, commodities and, of course, currencies.
Nothing is off limits to us in this free-wheeling look at the markets. Some days you’ll receive ramblings on trading psychology, while other days we may take an academic approach in explaining esoteric economic issues. Ultimately we have one goal in mind: to help you get a handle on the key investment themes driving global capital flow. Because if you know where the money is going, it increases the probability that your position in the market will be a profitable one.
Jack Crooks is Black Swan Capital LLC, President and Chief Trading Officer.
Jack is founder and president of Black Swan Capital LLC. He has also operated a discretionary money management firm specializing in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients. In addition, he was general partner in a firm specializing in currency futures and commodities trading. Neither firm is now in operation.
Prior to entering the investment arena, Jack worked in various corporate finance positions. He has written extensively on the subject of global currencies and international economics.
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We're still getting mixed signals as a consolidation moves continue. But it looks as though some of the currencies are building up steam; the likely resolution (on technical analysis alone) being a sharp breakout in accordance with the trend prior to consolidation.… More…
The mantra from most commodities guys is a simple: Be long or be wrong. This is a secular bull market in commodities. And up until that little upset recently, a 50% haircut triggered by the credit crunch, commodity bulls have been right on the money. … More…
China knows its symbiotic relationship with the US is over. You remember the one; it was based on US buying likely drunken sailors and China sending its sailors over to drop off container cartons of stuff, … More…
Wondering why the South African rand rallied sharply against the buck yesterday? Me too. Leading into and following the Federal Reserve announcement yesterday, the dollar was stronger versus the pack of majors. So what prompted such strength from the rand? … More…
We were expecting at least one day of follow-through (actually more) on the green shoot to brown weed re-think, thinking it would benefit the dollar as it did on Monday, but no dice. … More…
The World Bank says contraction will be greater than expected; the global economy will slow by 2.9% rather than 1.7%. … More…
Some days I struggle for things to rave or rant about in this morning missive. Often, after bleeding at the keyboard for an hour or two, something seemingly worth saying pours on to the screen; but there are those days when only the keyboard is stained. … More…
Since I penned my Comdol falling off a BRIC wall piece the other day, the commodity currencies and oil have of course rallied nicely--they didn't follow the plan. But, hope springs eternal in the world of investing, and hope also usually gets one into trouble ... as we know.… More…
The correlation between stocks and currencies is working; risk-appetite at its finest. But say we didn't have this connection ... say a 0.023% rise in the S&P 500 didn't equate to the same 0.023% rise in the Australian dollar or euro or whatever. … More…
If you get a chance, we think Martin Wolfe's piece in the FT today is worth the read, as it compares where we are in this global recession relative to where we were this time during the great depression. … More…
If I happened to know the German national anthem I'd likely break out in song right now before I finished typing up this piece. Oh, by the way, did you hear that German investor confidence blew past expectations in a sign that the recession is coming to a close?… More…
Soaring unemployment in Europe, with still huge banking exposure, rising political tensions, fiscal concerns among the PIGS, a little country called Latvia that may be the canary in the coal mine for its Eastern European neighbors so similarly afflicted … More…
The numbers are staggering...really incomprehensible...it's the kind of stuff that if you made it up no one would believe you...I'm talking about the amount of money both the US and European Union have committed to this crisis:… More…
Imagination inflation - a.k.a. imagiflation -- is what's needed in order to understand price action these days. … More…
We were very much warming to the idea that most of the bad news seemed to be in the dollar--much of the key points posted above i.e. if we know it and you know it then it should already be in the price. … More…
I was putting air into my bicycle tires the other day just to make sure I'd have a nice smooth ride when I hopped on. … More…
What if: 1. The world will be struggling with deflation instead of inflation? 2.US employment and housing experience another leg down? 3. China disappoints? 4. An Eastern European country defaults? 5. 5) The US is on track to at least muddle through better than Europe?… More…
It seems a lot is riding on this opportunity for more "green shoots" this morning. Most expect the dollar to tank on better than expected jobs news; but few seem to be thinking the dollar will rally on worse than expected news… More…
Though I don't spend too much time worrying about it, I often wonder where our esteemed leaders - financial and political - have their money hidden away. Where are their investments?… More…
The Chinese leadership said so yesterday, despite their previous intermittent cat-calls for a new currency. … More…
Ok, we've mentioned this once or twice already, but mostly we've just been joking. Now we're starting to wonder if we should take this idea more seriously. Apparently a whole bunch of others are.… More…
Stocks are climbing the proverbial wall of worry indeed, evidenced by this piece in the Financial Times this morning… More…
