Ugly Buck-ling Makes the Dodos Look Good.

Quotable

You’re sound-byte-mining quote of the day comes from Jimmy Rogers discussing agriculture …

“In America– one of the agricultural states the average age of farmers is 58 years old … in ten years, if they’re still alive, they’ll be 68.”
                                  Jimmy Rogers

Commentary & Analysis
Ugly Buck-ling Makes the Dodos Look Good.

Maybe the European Central Bank hikes interest rates again as soon as June.

Maybe the US Congress will continue to butt heads on deficit reduction plans.

Maybe the Federal Reserve will resort to some new form of economic stimulus, aka QE3.

Maybe investors expect affirmation of the Fed’s accommodation ad infinitum now that Ben Bernanke has agreed to do 4 post-FOMC “media briefings” each year.

Maybe all is right (or will be made right) in this world and there is no reason to be scared of any risk assets.

Whatever the reason, the US dollar is clearly the big loser right now. Besides potential risks to the global economy, there are no hints that anything driving the dollar lower will change substantively anytime soon. So why not place your bets while the odds are still in your favor, right?

The euro has made a strong move after a big down day to start the week; it’s now at new 15-month highs. The pound has done similarly.

GBPUSD Daily: after testing its 50-day moving average earlier in the week, the pound is breaking convincingly above resistance. (The fact that the Bollinger Bands have narrowed also indicates a potentially powerful breakout move.)

GBPUSD Weekly: there is about 500 PIPs upside potential before the next important resistance level comes into play. That level is about $1.70 which is the high mark for the pound since the financial crisis-induced collapse sent it reeling from $2 to $1.35 in a mere 6 months time.

The pound has been relatively suppressed versus other currencies for good reason. But with the way the US dollar is looking, there seems to be good reason to expect pounds at $1.70 soon.

Versus the euro, however, the pound has seen a slight advantage since 2009. The downward sloping trend shows that. But it also shows the euro is working to win back favor as EURGBP has broken above the upper bound of that range:

If you like the idea of ECB rate hikes, think the risk of Eurozone periphery default or bailout or restructuring is overplayed, then long EURGBP might be your horse.

If you’re worried about Greece et al, then perhaps GBPUSD is a more comfortable bet for you.

  • Joshua Pearce Gibson

    Is this a ‘doomed to extinction’ reference?

  • C M

    UK banks are just as exposed to potential (probably inevitable) eurozone sovereign defaults/haircuts as many eurozone banks. Why do you think the UK has contributed to the EFSM ?

  • Jean Pierre Caron

    I got the same feeling for different reasons…. i am in my own world! i mean seeing different, but it’s like a mirror without experience.
    HAPPY to get in touch with so much expérience and knowing of the currency world, though humanity is a view that reflect currency.

  • Joshua Pearce Gibson

    ‘Dodos’…?