Premise check?

Key News

Key Reports (WSJ):
No economic events are scheduled for today.

Quotable

“While payrolls slid by 345,000, much below the consensus guess, it was the usual hokey number, getting a lift from the wonderful birth/death model, which somehow summoned up 220,000 jobs and did so, magically, out of thin air.

“The harsh truth is that, using the regular payroll data, a rather formidable 14.5 million people are out of work. Moreover, if we look at the category we feel gives a more accurate picture — the so-called U-6 tally — which includes people too discouraged to keep looking for a job and those working part-time because they can’t find full-time slots, the unemployment rate shot up to a new high of 16.4%. That means that something around 25 million folks are effectively on the dole. Ugh!”

                             Alan Abelson, Barron’s

FX Trading – Premise check?
Let me throw this out to you currency trading enthusiasts… What if:

  1. The world will be struggling with deflation instead of inflation?
  2. US employment and housing experience another leg down?
  3. China disappoints?
  4. An Eastern European country defaults?
  5. The US is on track to at least muddle through better than Europe?

…well, it might mean:

  1. Commodities prices are “way” overvalued
  2. Emerging stock markets are “way” overvalued
  3. Long bonds are “way” undervalued
  4. The US dollar is “way” undervalued

Is it time for a premise check?  We think so.

  • danjapress

    good article and links, thanks

  • draketrade

    nice article

  • danjapress

    good article and links, thanks

  • draketrade

    nice article