Maybe The US Dollar Index “Correction” Is Over.


“I’m waking up less at night than I was [over the slowdown in housing]. So far, there’s been remarkably little effect [from housing] on the rest of the economy.”

~ Janet Yellen, San Francisco Fed President, MarketWatch, February 21, 2007

Commentary & Analysis

Maybe the US Dollar Index “correction” is over.

Using a simple A-B-C count of the legs, or waves, down in the US dollar index shows the last leg, or C-wave in this chart, found support right at a key exetnsion level, i.e. wave C = 76.4% of wave A.  I know for those who aren’t into this stuff, it sounds a bit like mumbo jumbo—and it may be.  But there we have it.  And today’s rally in USD on the back of news that President Obama chose Janet Yellen as his candidate to replace Hellicopter Ben makes the rally even more interesting given the consensus view that Janet will make Ben look like a monetary hawk.

This move comes just in time for a significant increase in long positioning in euro currency futures, as measured by the CFTC last week 24 Sep 2013:

Euro Bulls   129,862   +28,899 increase in bullish positions                          67% bulls

Euro Bears    64,018      -5,038 decrease in bearish positions                        33% bears

…it’s that sentiment thing I guess.

  • wintergasp

    Man what you say is total bullshit:

    (a) I’m not sure how you draw your fibonacci to find that 76.4%, because your 100% level is not connected to any price

    (b) if there’s an increase in longs for future contracts, that means EUR will go up against its counterpart, i.e. USD will go down.

    You’re right on the idea that USD is going to go up from now on, it’s quite unlikely to see eurusd above 1.36, the reasons you have are wrong tho.