The 20-period Bollinger Bands on a chart of EIRL (iShares MSCI Ireland Capped ETF) narrowed dramatically. And now they are expanding. Along those lines, an indicator I like to watch suggests EIRL is in the second day of a five-day move to the upside.
I suspect such a move could coincide with the last hurrah for Eurozone markets in the intermediate-term. After all, measured by EIRL, Ireland has been going bonkers since the middle of summer 2012.
Spain, measured by EWP (iShares MSCI Spain Index Fund) has been going wild too — it’s run in just the last month and a half totals better than 24%!
Germany (EWG) and Italy (EWI) are following suit.
But it seems as though this “buy the Eurozone because the worst is behind them” theme is about to run its course. And any further advances will need to be accompanied by legitimate improvements in the data or at least sentiment.
This article from the Telegraph explains how the apparent improvement in the outlook for Spain is not well founded: An apology of sorts — Spain not bust after all
And this article from the Telegraph explains the chatter surrounding Ireland’s likely exit from bailout territory. But it’s got to be nothing but another PR gimmick to buffer the ongoing political turmoil with “good news.”
After all, France’s established political parties are undergoing a real test from a far-Right anti-euro party whose leader is running on the campaign promise that the euro must be dissolved orderly or France will exit uncooperatively.
And Greece is battling through similar polarization. But the difference is that Greece is still in bailout territory. And should things not go smoothly, more bail-outs would be likely. And that doesn’t even factor in the potential bail-ins that would generate a sort of Cyprus-like deja vu.
As that last article implied, I’d be careful piling in with the hedge funds who are ready to bet the eurozone is out of the woods.