Morning Comments & Positioning

Actions:
Stopped out of short USD/CAD Issue #1449 with 25 pip profit

The dollar is stronger against the pack this morning…US stocks flat, bonds flat, oil flat, gold off a bit…Nikkei stronger overnight and USD/JPY rallied in tune again…

We gave back some small open gains today, buy I am clinging to the rally side of EUR/USD because I believe the risk is worth the bet (really has scope back to 1.2900, but not trying to be that greedy). But…. For now hang on and leave our original stop-loss in place for now.

A bit choppy out there (really all week), especially for the commodity currencies. Oil, gold, China growth, and deflation all in the mix generating sentiment waves, mostly negative, for commodity players. I do expect deflationary pressures will continue. And I do expect China’s headline GDP to slow. Fundamentally, this is not good news for the commodity currencies longer term if those expectations prove true. But I have been looking at the pack of comdols for a playable correction in here with an eye toward playing the trend again with a longer term focus, i.e. wider profit targets and wider stop-loss levels.

The British pound has been the exception over the past several days, it has trended nicely—downward. It is moving in line with fundamental news—politics getting a bit dicey, housing a concern, and demand from its primary export market, the Eurozone, not exactly healthy. But, technically this move looks quite extended (we never know of course and why when trying to pick bottoms and tops using Elliott, we use stops). So, we have an open order to buy GBP/USD—I am looking for a healthy bounce…but same time open to the idea the pair could test next key daily swing low near 1.5480 before this move ends.

GBP/USD has blown through that extension target I shared in the chart view on the pound last night –
1.5774; now at 1.5646. Let’s maintain this open order for now I will likely send new instructions for the trade or a cancellation.

Updates to follow…