“The worst is not, So long as we can say, “This is the worst.”
FX Trading – Despite Banana Republic cat calls from the usual suspects it’s still only a correction, we think …
The gold bugs are smelling blood. The new global currency crowd is out in full. And of course, just like that, we should all give up our sovereignty to some global policy committee so they can determine monetary policy for all. This stuff borders on kook-burger land!
But this same crowd of course believes we are the kook-burgers for daring to utter the term–dollar bull market. Yo! In case this crowd hasn’t been watching, the ever-doomed US dollar has rallied 27% to its high near 9000 on the dollar index since July of last year. Not a bad investment, even though the broken-clock-theory-the-dollar-is-dirt-crowd seems to hate. Don’t hate!
There’s no doubt it’s a scary thing watching the central bank monetize debt. But then again, watching all this stuff is bad-dream pull the covers over your eyes like. But if we work from the premise the Eurozone banking system is worse off than the US variety, and the Eurozone economy is weaker than Uncle Sam’s too, AND if this currency thing is a relative game (an ugly one indeed at the moment), we wonder if this sentiment swing on reaction to the Fed moves isn’t a bit knee-jerk to say the least? The point being this: the so-called dollar alternative that resides in the Eurozone isn’t looking so hot if you believe ultimately fundamentals driver currency prices over time, as we do.
Of course unlike the broken-clock-theory-the-dollar-is-dirt-crowd who never seems to let facts get in the way of their well worn and beyond consensus drone of a story, we do sometimes let the facts get in the way of ours. And the fact is the dollar is correcting now. And the fact is NO ONE EVER KNOWS when a “correction” is actually a trend change until the gift of hindsight is bestowed. And if one tells you they know, they are either a liar or they have never traded or they are just plain ignorant (we have more categories here to describe these clowns, but we need to keep it clean this early in the morning).
So, until Mr. Market, through is unassailable judgment which flows to us in the form of prices, tells us this is a change in the long-term dollar trend, we view this as a correction. But no doubt it can continue to be a violent viscous one with what is called legs–multi-week or month variety.
It ain’t over till it’s over!
Have a great weekend.