“Between two evils, I always pick the one I never tried before.”
Commentary & Analysis
Time for Oil to trend lower as Ukraine pressure ebbs: Chart View
I have been getting my clients whacked on my short oil idea. But maybe hope springs eternal, as this setup may add some validation a “corrective top” may be in place. I shared these comments yesterday (chart updated this morning):
On Monday, crude surged on the Ukraine concerns breaching key resistance at 104.38 and likely triggering a bunch of “buy stops” for price led players who were short. Non-commercial speculators in the futures market are extremely long this market. The latest Commitment of Traders report shows 514,502 long with 98,064 short contracts on the NY Mercantile Exchange. That seems a one-way bet. You can also see in the bottom panel there was divergence, or momentum loss, into the recent price high. Momentum leads price! I have not been shaken from the fundamental supply/demand story which still seems bearish for crude.