March 2012 Monthly Archive

Might copper longs take a bath after the China news?

China holds more than 1 million tonnes of commercial stocks of refined copper cathode currently, a level last seen in 2009, due to high imports and weak domestic demand, which may slow arrivals in the second quarter, analysts said on Tuesday. Read more

It’s a lay-up: buy stocks!

John Ross asked me this morning if I could create a scenario whereby stocks fall. I laughed and said, “Well … no!” And maybe that is the point. No doubt ‘if you are not long, you are wrong’ is playing out in spades. But we’ve seen that sentiment many times before near tops. Read more

Crude oil speculation is a symptom of monetary accommodation.

You might remember last year, when commodity prices were rising, Ben Bernanke referred to the pressure of rising prices as being transitory … and refused to recognize it as plain and simple inflation. Read more

China Rebalancing! Is it an oxymoron?

I got a bit of a chuckle out of IMF Chief Christine Lagarde. She recently praised China for its “rebalancing efforts.” What a pain it must be to have to lie publicly on a regular basis in an effort to keep the key players agreeable so you can attempt to conduct coordinated global policy. Read more

Rising Payrolls vs. Declining Consumer Sentiment: Who Wins?

We don’t specialize in the stock market, but we spend a lot of time trying to understand why the stock market, as a whole, might rise or fall. It helps us understand capital flows across and between global financial markets. Read more

The Big Swing: US Long Rates? The ball is in China’s court!

Watching the rise in US long-bond yields got me to wondering: What if the fall in the Japanese and Chinese current account surpluses continues, i.e. this trend is for real? Read more

Is this China’s last ditch effort to avoid the hard landing?

We talk a lot about why the shift to sufficient levels of consumption will be tough for China to achieve with any efficiency. Basically, the consumer faces pressures from inflation and redirected capital flows, from the central government to local government investment projects, which prop up the current system, despite the need for a shift. Read more