September 2010 Monthly Archive

European Officials: “Oh please oh please oh please oh please …”

Really, that’s what this Eurozone fiasco has morphed into – quiet desperation. Officials — whether those heading up Eurozone member countries, the IMF, the EU or the ECB — are all holding their breath and hoping that something they do, some of their economy-restoring and debt-reducing strategies, actually sticks. Read more

Juxtaposing QE, looking at gold, and watching CAD struggle

Put the news about the European Central Bank choosing not to extend certain QE measures next to the Federal Reserve discussing new potential QE measures and you’ve got the big reason, right there in front of you, why the euro is gaining ground so quickly on the dollar. Read more

Are stocks telling us it’s time to get short?

The pace of growth in the euro zone’s services and manufacturing sectors slowed much more than expected this month, but surveys published on Thursday showed businesses were more optimistic. Read more

Follow the Leader: Australian dollar the risk driver here?

There is no mistaking the role the Australian dollar plays in currency speculation. It is easily THE risk currency. It’s got growth (particularly the tight connection to China and the rest of Asia) and interest rates on its side. So when speculators are looking to capitalize on risk appetite, or when investors are looking for an extra yield boost, they look towards the Australian dollar. Read more

Risk on or Risk Off? The gold versus Euro Correlation just blew out …

Yesterday was a weird day. I say that because the correlations seemed all screwed up. Bonds were weak, commodities were basically flat to mixed (except for the precious kind), US stocks flattish, and yet the currencies were signaling risk appetite is back; well, except for the yen which strengthened big time yesterday (before intervention this morning). Read more

Gold is telling us something … as usual

We said what is interesting about this chart is the fact gold and the US dollar have moved in a positive correlation lately. We’ve highlighted the area on the chart roughly where you can see the two price series started moving together. This isn’t usually the case as you well know. Read more

The risk to mere consolidation: euro

As we finished up last week with US Nonfarm Payrolls, we were left with a taste of risk-taking. US stocks breached resistance and the dollar flopped, barely holding on above support. Read more

Betting on black …

A member of the Crooks family was recently talking about roulette, specifically how he thought that there must be a strategy that can put the odds of winning in your favor. Perhaps there is, but he wasn’t able to vocalize it and we weren’t buying it. Flipping a coin came to mind. Read more

The famous “Hodgepodge” …

After yesterday’s risk-taking rocket ride the obvious reaction is to sit and watch for a reaction. Will traders take the opportunity to sell after yesterday’s strength? And if so is it profit-taking or simply an opportunity to get short? Read more

Risk on: China leading PMI could be good thing for growth…

We’ve been strident about the idea that global growth decoupling from the US is a myth. The idea being the US consumer is still the primary demand engine for the world, and Mr. US Consumer becomes all the more important as European demand heads into its austerity shell. But today’s news has us wondering a bit about our stridency. Read more