May 2010 Monthly Archive

Hodgepodge Friday

If you were worried about the euro, you can stop now. We saw a story on Bloomberg that quoted Paris-based money manager Emeric Challier as saying, “The crisis is over.” Read more

Now Germany knows how we feel.

“The big lesson of the US financial crisis is that you have to act quickly and with force.” And why not? His “markets want to see action” approach parallels the same skewed thought process that … Read more

Jim, are you talking your BRIC book?

Where does one even begin with that type inanity, from a person who is far from inane? Yo Jim! Germany, that little country holding it all together over there; well, they send about 50% of their exports to the eurozone each year. Read more

Have we stopped listening to Geithner yet?

The US Treasury Secretary has been in China, tip-toeing around yuan exchange rate reform, Chinese industrial protectionism-type behavior, etc. It was obvious Geithner was not there to point fingers – he’s probably been given a strict script to which he must stick … after seemingly losing his cool on Capitol Hill months ago. Read more

Finally we are getting some real company on our dollar call

Many are afraid the dollar is overbought and the run is done. No doubt, we will see ebbs and flows. But long-term, we haven’t seen capitulation yet to this dollar move. Read more

A lot to worry about

The stock market of late seems to be noticing them. But commentators seem to be looking right past them–systemic risks. Why do I say that? Well, it seems every time I flip on the TV to a financial show, one mutual fund manager after another is trotted out to tell me this is a great buying opportunity. Read more

“Forget Latvia,” I’m told.

After my Tuesday note on Latvia, I received two very informative emails pointing out my errors, omissions, etc. … as well as some additional noteworthy tidbits about the Baltics. I’ll get to those reader responses in a second. Read more

Dear Mrs. Merkel we’d like to say, “It is calculable!”

Man, if she keeps this up, Mr. Sarkozy is in danger of losing his top spot as the Eurozone leader most prone to bouts of hyperbole. Read more

Remember Latvia?

Latvia: they were a big deal about a year ago, and maybe even before that, when the lending practices among Eurozone banks, EU countries and CEE countries posed a huge risk to growth across the region. Read more

China: That dog won’t hunt!

I have two dogs; a very big Rottweiler (for protection from Chi-Coms when I pen pieces like this) and a mutt. Usually they sit here in the office each day, just hanging out watching the market with me. They always seem to agree with my assessments–another reason I love them so. Read more

Japan Snaps? China Crackles? Canada Pops?

Japan is trying to make credit easy but it likely won’t have the intended effect. What’s new? But what about credit in the rest of the world? Can we garner any investment clues? United States – Recovering after the worst decline in the last thirty years? Read more

Two points and one chart may suggest a comdol bloodbath–that’s all!

And to give you an insight into how my scary mind thinks about this stuff, I have created the following chart in an attempt to link these events in some convoluted way to suggest that just maybe a comdol (that’s fancy FX-trader talk for commodity dollars) bloodbath is in the making. Read more

Monetary Change We Can Believe In?

Now that global central banks are off the one-size-fits-all monetary policy, it’s starting to get exciting. Read more

Quantitative Easing Gargantuan!

Party time! Excellent! Impressive! European leaders do know how to spike a punchbowl; that’s for sure. Read more

A short story about denying Mr. Market

Unfortunately the German parliament voted to approve 22.4 billion euro loans for Greece today. The euro bounced on the news. I was hoping of course for lawmakers there to finally drive a stake through the heart of that silly artificial government bungled construct known as the single currency and do us all a favor. Read more

The surprise is on the downside … this time.

A heck of a week for the buck so far, right? Granted we still got a lot of time left before it sticks, but the weekly bar on a chart of the US Dollar Index looks rather impressive Read more

If you utter the “C-word” then the words “emerging markets” must come next

Ah…is Mr. Market finally waking to the systemic global macro threat that was always lingering in the background of Eurozone debt default? “Yes indeed,” he said. There is much talk of the dreaded “C-word” in the financial press this morning–CONTAGION! Keep in mind, if you utter the word contagion the words emerging markets (EM) must come next. Read more

Keep selling the news?

In a game of relative value, there’s been good reason to put your money on the Australian dollar. The simple carry-trade theme makes Australia an obvious choice during a time when general financial market risk is surprisingly absent. Read more

“Good” news bad price action: Par or bust clearly in play

Our Demagogue of the Year Award goes to Mr. Warren Buffet Read more