January 2010 Monthly Archive

The Short Case for Dumping Gold Here

I just love the Mae West quote above. Funny thing is that many gold bugs cling to the belief (any many marketers who should know better validate said belief) that someday we may return to a gold standard. Read more

The STATE of the DOLLAR and the Black Swan Response

Our Federal Reserve has chosen to leave interest rates unchanged again as the path to US recovery is still dependent (perhaps psychologically) on cheap money. Read more

Deflation Rising: Making the Case for a Lasting Deflationary Environment

Jim, thank you for that most insightful view that is taking place in the real world, out of the reaches of most economists who seem to spend their days toiling in “theory land.” Read more

Dollar, Debt and Dominance

Last week when I touched upon the US dollar’s technical pattern, and the near-term potential for it to roll over a bit, I made mention of the lingering debt problem in the US. Especially when it comes to the US dollar, US debts are a growing concern that keep many analysts US dollar-bearish. Read more

Solid consensus still on the yellow metal and the buck

Over the weekend I had the opportunity to speak at an excellent conference in Vancouver, British Columbia–The World Outlook Conference. It was a great venue and there were many nice people who attended. Read more

US Dollar Index Failing? Follow-through would be nice …

As an encore to the week prior when they increased the interest rate on one-year bills and upped the required reserve ratio on banks, they ratcheted up the rate on one-year bills again. Read more

Too Much Fun for Just One Government

The Heritage Foundation convened again and published their most recent annual report that ranks the economic freedom of 183 countries around the globe. As mentioned in the Key News section above, Hong Kong claimed the top spot … followed by Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland and Switzerland. Read more

Euro Mash and China Teetering

Let’s look at what the euro has done against the US dollar compared to what the Chinese currency has done since the last dollar bear market began. Below is a percent change chart with the starting date June 1, 2002. Read more

Somebody give the Chinese a US talk show slot

With all the controversy surrounding Jay Leno, Conan O’Brien and mama bird NBC … perhaps China would like to slip in and host a show, regardless of whether they get pushed back by half an hour. Read more

Can you say Drachma?

Drachma of course is the old currency Greek citizens used to deal with. Could they be heading back to it soon? Maybe! Read more

Kan you say 90.00 USDJPY?

I guess he was right – the market will be the arbiter of prices for the USDJPY exchange rate. It’s a good thing nobody listened to the New Japanese Finance Minister, Naoto Kan, when he called for a weaker yen as an integral part of Japan’s hoped economic revival. Read more

Party on dudes…

Is it a Black Swan event when so many people are already talking about it? No, but the China cheerleaders will say it is so… Read more

Lessons to be learned.

Martin Wolf of the Financial Times (quoted above) brings back the common comparison to Japan’s lost decade … in hopes of conveying the similarities between Japan then and the US now. Read more

Complacency vs. Risk Aversion Probabilities Seemingly Rising

This morning, writing in the Financial Times, long-time Asian market seer and excellent analyst/writer Peter Tasker tells us most emerging markets are looking dicey, given the overvaluation. The biggest problem flows from the biggest one–China, according to Tasker. Read more

Face It: Everything Looks Hunky Dory

China has reaffirmed common belief that it will continue to press on and realize a legitimate and sufficient recovery. They will retain their position as a global economic leader and in doing so will help out many smaller economies at the same time. Read more

Another Episode of “Do the Fundamentals Matter?”

We’ve paid some attention lately to the fact that the US dollar is reacting positively to fundamentals, i.e. negative data is negative for the buck, positive data is positive for the buck. Read more

Liquidity stuff at the margins again…hmmm

It may be a stretch to say China is now going to drain massive amounts of liquidity, having to pay penance for the error of its massive stimulus spending and subsidization ways (which it rightly accuses the West of the same). Read more

Stark Raving … Again.

You’re only as good as your worst player … Or something like that. This is why the euro has been so bogged down by daily news citing Greek [debt] tradegy. Just how badly the rest of the Eurozone is set to perform remains a question. Read more

Currency Currents, 01/05/09

No one can predict shocks. But the theory of the double dip is very clear in one important respect: Shocks can deal lethal blows to anemic recoveries. Read more

Bernanke Setting a Bad Precedent?

How badly does Ben Bernanke want to keep his job? Frankly, I’m surprised he’d even sign-up for all the responsibilities and criticisms that come with being Fed chairman; just seems like it’s not worth it. Read more