September 2009 Monthly Archive

Warm up for Friday…

There have been much cryptic and not so cryptic comments of late from Federal Reserve Bank speakers. Some are implicitly calling for rate hikes sooner rather than later to mop up all the mess of money excess Read more

A Crude Indicator for the Real Economy

Greater‐than‐expected confidence numbers again come out of Europe. The status relative to historical numbers can be seen Read more


Talk about fundamental disconnect–yikes! Traders are all over the Japanese yen–it is the soaring against all comers. Some traders are eyeing the 85 level, an area not seen since 1995. Read more

Newspeak ramble…and this time last year the dollar rallied

Mr. Orwell, the Ministry of Truth would like to see you… “Demonstrating the repeated abuse of language by the government and by the media in his novel, Orwell shows how language can be used politically to deceive and manipulate people Read more

The Immortal Words of John H. Cochrane and Irving Berlin

Here we sit with nothing but blue skies ahead. Kind of reminds me of the popular song of the same name (I enjoy the Frank Sinatra and Willie Nelson versions of Blue Skies). Read more

Fed Wednesday. It might be interesting.

Quiet so far this morning in front of the Federal Reserve Bank’s pronouncement on all things monetary due out later this afternoon. We wait to hear how Mr. Bernanke & Co. will decide to save us from ourselves yet again. Read more

“[We Won’t Be] Waiting on the World to Change.”

Some of you may not know this … but this week is Climate Week. The goal is to spread the word about climate change and the importance of enacting climate change legislation that addresses key problems associated with man-made global warming. Read more

Packing on the Pounds: Sterling Looks Heavy

The British pound, relative to the euro or the Australian dollar, has traded heavy over the last two months. Read more

Stages of the dollar

Maybe some of you have been receiving the same email I have been getting; it says the market will crash sometime between Thursday, September 17th and Monday, September 28th. Read more

Recession Over? US Dollar Over?

It’s turning out to be a long September down a one-way street for the buck. The decisions of investors who’ve jumped in on stocks and risky assets are being validated by three things Read more

Ode to the Outlaw Goldbug

My father in-law, the family gold bug, makes sure I know that gold is going up, in case I haven’t noticed. He’s loaded to the gunnels with gold and silver (no bomb shelter yet that I know of). Read more

The Feel-Good Measure

France’s per capita GDP is roughly 14% lower than per capita GDP in the US. But that’s only a mirage … and only factors in economic figures, rather than the actual mood of those who make up the economy. Read more

Hats off to China–They have made their intentions clear.

It may at times be a cozy symbiotic relationship that has been beneficial for the US; especially as it relates to the US consumer getting increasingly higher quality and very inexpensive goods from China–that does increase domestic purchasing power. Read more

Divergence confusionism…

A very astute member of Black Swan services pointed out the latest growing divergence between the bond price action the last couple of days, and the dollar…The question: What does it mean? Read more

Dollar blues…Ugly policies…Hampered markets…gold over $1,000

Boy, you know it’s bad when the UN gets into the act and people actually take them seriously. Read more

Capitulation Questions and Reader Mailbag

In an article by Wolfgang Munchau appearing on, the case is made that Europe (particularly the Eurozone) will experience a withering pace of growth during the recovery phase of this global economic crisis. Read more

China – Inscrutable, or Screwed?

I am constantly stunned and surprised at the pronouncements that the worst is over and the World Recession is at an end. Read more

What if…

Central bankers have made it very clear they are leery about taking away the punch bowl. Mr. Trichet laid out the ECB concerns and potential paths in an editorial appearing in the Financial Times today. Read more

The Benefits are Dwindling; Currencies Look to Even Out

As with most weeks culminating in a US Nonfarm Payrolls report, this one started with some decent price action but will probably become more confined as tomorrow’s report draws nearer. Read more

Rant: So how about the mind of the market Mr. Expert?

As I said, I don’t often watch TV. I know many do and seem to find it helpful. For me, it creates confusion. Watching the market each day is enough confusion for me. Read more

Political Differential Moves Markets Too

In our analysis of currencies we’re constantly reevaluating the growth and interest rate differentials between countries. The reason is simple: better growth and higher interest rates make investing in one currency, relative to another, more appealing. Read more