August 2009 Monthly Archive

Does it matter?

Chinese stocks got whacked overnight, down 6.7%. Will it matter? If the story about China finally increasing domestic demand proves true, evidenced by increasing exports from the Asian countries into China, it could likely blunt any negative impact of falling stocks in Shanghai. Read more

Who leads …

Somebody flipped the switch at 10:00 EST a.m. yesterday, as oil surged and the buck sank sharply Read more

One Nation, Under Government

Here we are … always ripping on China for their notorious stimulus package that is the reason behind their economic good of the last four or five months, always lambasting the analysts who keep touting China’s recovery thanks to stimulus and lending. Read more

Global demand questions still…

If China is the spark for global demand, why are Japanese exports to China still in the proverbial toilet? If Europe is on the road to recovery, why have Japan exports to the continent been crushed? Read more

Rehashing Two Key Points

Yesterday the European currencies struggled while the commodity dollars firmed up … that is until US stocks began rolling over late in the session to ultimately finish the day flat. The dollar strengthened. Read more

Picture Day

S&P 500 divided by Gold…hmmm…it at least tells us the relative value of gold has risen dramatically compared to stocks, as we switched from the up with paper stock rally to the in with stuff commodities rally in 2000. Read more

Currencies on Vacation in their Happy Place

So in the last two and a half months – the last 75 days – the major currencies are little changed. I mean, these pairs move greater distances over the course of a single day, they’ve just been so noncommittal this summer that it almost frustrating. Read more

Watching the bonds

If you’ve been watching the bonds, you likely know they have been in a tight embrace with the US stock market–stocks up in price, bond down in price (up in yield), and vice versa. Read more

The Euro Isn’t Liking Its Day at the ZEW

Ok – quick recap of yesterday … A bunch of noise out of UK hits the British pound hard … ECB Axel Weber warns of “Financial Crisis: Round 2” heading for Europe … Read more

British pound in the cross hairs?

The old “risk aversion” is back so far this morning, as stocks get hit. And in lock‐step the US dollar, US Treasuries, and Japanese yen are bidding higher. Other losers are gold, oil, and the rest of the currency pack. Read more

Getting back to the trend instead of intellectualizing…

We didn’t publish CC yesterday, as it was a day of trying to get the head right. To do that, I usually re‐read some of my favorite books about trading. One I particularly like is Zen in the Markets, by Edward Toppel. Read more

Ut oh!

Interesting! The global economic news this morning sure doesn’t seem to bode well for “the recession is over” crowd. Read more

Credit Crunch to Linger … Longer?

Let’s reminisce on the credit crunch, shall we? Liquidity dried up; demand went missing; the global economy’s gears all but stopped turning; national and international regimes went into savior mode. Read more

Growth Surprise up a Notch on the Probability Scale

Though one non-farm payroll report doesn’t make a trend, especially given the number of job seekers leaving the scene entirely, many are declaring the recession is officially over thanks to Friday’s report. Read more

Overblown Jobs Report Tells Us Nothing

Honestly, I’m getting tired of these monthly jobs reports out of the US. Sure, it’s good to know the minute-by-minute direction we’re traveling … but the onslaught of investor analysis and market volatility after the fact is enough to make me want to turn off the screens by 8:45 a.m. eastern. Read more

Why? …And the buck testing key weekly support!

The trend is your friend. Price is the final arbiter. Market prices are reality. If you fail to respect the information contained in those last three short sentences you usually end up trying to find a source of funds to start another trading account. Read more

Waiting for the Jobs; Plus, Canadian Dollar Comments from Blackmont …

Since topping out on Monday the euro has been tracking sideways. The likely story is that many traders are awaiting a hint from the ADP Payrolls report due out today … Read more

Tight Coupling, Decoupling and Risk – So What?

In Richard Bookstaber’s A Demon of Our Own Design he starts things off with a brief analysis on economic and financial market risk. Read more

Media Superstar Building

It’s usually the case that when we get it right in the markets we surmise its brains, and when we get it wrong its bad luck. In trading, getting it right is what matters, no matter if it’s for the wrong reason–which when you think about it is lucky. Read more