July 2009 Monthly Archive

Oil Demagoguery Delayed

It’s a sad week for the usual demagogues in the US congress (sorry for the redundancy), as global oil companies are reporting lousy earnings. Read more

Down; Up; Now Which Way From Here?

This week in Currency Currents we’ve discussed some details surrounding China and their ultimate influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. For good reason, everyone seems to pay close attention to China – they’re an economic leader. Read more

The Sentiment Switch and Chinese stock market crash!

I noticed the Chinese stock market fell 5% last night–at least that’s what’s been reported by Bloomberg and others; I actually didn’t notice it really. Read more

When China Comes “Unhinged” …

Global rebalancing is happening, like it or not. The question is: how will the global economy react when China becomes unhinged? That’s exactly what Jeremy Grantham is calling for; and he expects it could really take market players by surprise. Read more

Emerging markets soaring…overshoot?

Emerging markets continue to fly. Many for good reason I suspect. The iShares MSCI Emerging Stock Index has rebounded 50% from its low back in November last year. Read more

To Be, Or Not To Be … In Canadian Dollars?

As Jack mentioned on Tuesday, we’re in Vancouver speaking at an investment conference. A popular question here, as the case with most conferences and seminars we attend, is: Read more

Leading and Following…

Do stocks and currencies lead commodities? We think stocks are the best discounting mechanism we have. We think sooner or later the fundamentals of supply and demand are factored into prices. Read more

A Technical Stopping Point for Risk-Takers

There’s one important chart I wanted to show you today. I’ll get to that in a minute. News wise, though, there’s nothing too exciting to talk about this morning; prices are little changed from where they finished yesterday … and the day before that. Read more

Questions and few answers…

If we have learned one thing over the many years following markets it is this: If you are paying attention, there are always many more questions than answers. And if you are highly confident about future price action, you have either never traded real money or you haven’t a clue. Read more

Aussie angst and some feedback loops!

Given that Australia has effectively become a satellite country of China–a country we are told is “booming” with growth–does the news item from Bloomberg this morning strike anyone else as a bit odd? Read more

Reconcile This!

Can we really reconcile the expectations flooding the market this week with key fundamental data we’ve got our hands on? I sure can’t. Can you? Read more

A weak dollar scenario…a policy prescription from Mr. Soros?

We do our best to build alternative plausible scenarios that are in competition to our current trading positions; we say our best because we know by virtue of taking a position, the bias already exists. Read more

Earnings, Stocks and Dollars

First-quarter earnings season, characterized by low-ball estimates and less-bad-than-expected results, helped drive a sharp rally in stock markets and risk appetite. Read more

Dollar Doom Crowd Memory Hole!

If you’ve followed the newsletter crowd much at all, many love to talk about the dollar, but few really risk their well-being trying to make money for real people trading it (it’s a beautiful thing being a guru with impunity). Read more

China Panic!

China is dead in the water without exports. They are in panic mode. That is why they are flooding their economy with massive amounts of capital and suppressing any hint of decent everywhere. Read more

Random Thoughts: Stimulus, Confidence, T-Notes, Dollar (yen)

It’s Thursday, the currencies are retracing again so we figured what better time than now to throw together some random thoughts on the markets, news and whatever else. Enjoy! Read more

Deflationary Spiral

Above is the yield curve. Notice how far rates in the low-end (left side) of the curve have fallen. This is good for banks but likely bad for us who want to borrow and not too good for those who depend on deposits for income. Read more

Financial Climate Change: Debatable?

Climate change — it’s taken on a meaning beyond the literal. It is “global warming” … it is carbon emissions … it is saving the planet … it is ridiculous. Read more

Beware of Falling BRICS

The BRIC countries which include Brazil, Russia, India, and China are talked about as if they are some monolithic grouping that will carry the world out of the great depression we seem to be now mired. Read more

Come On … Who Sells Dollars Ahead of July 4th?

By the looks of it, traders might actually be respecting the holiday commemorating US Independence. The dollar is positive on the day so far. Read more

Lot of “key days” yesterday or just more head fakes?

A key day reversal is defined by Stockcharts.com as “a one day chart pattern where prices sharply reverse during a trend. In an uptrend, prices open in new highs and then close below the previous day’s closing price. Read more