June 2009 Monthly Archive

AUD and GBP: The Pressure is Building

We’re still getting mixed signals as a consolidation moves continue. But it looks as though some of the currencies are building up steam; the likely resolution (on technical analysis alone) being a sharp breakout in accordance with the trend prior to consolidation. Read more

Commodities sentiment near and far: It’s all good!

The mantra from most commodities guys is a simple: Be long or be wrong. This is a secular bull market in commodities. And up until that little upset recently, a 50% haircut triggered by the credit crunch, commodity bulls have been right on the money. Read more

Chinese train wreck?

China knows its symbiotic relationship with the US is over. You remember the one; it was based on US buying likely drunken sailors and China sending its sailors over to drop off container cartons of stuff, Read more

An Opportunity in Dollar/Rand?

Wondering why the South African rand rallied sharply against the buck yesterday? Me too. Leading into and following the Federal Reserve announcement yesterday, the dollar was stronger versus the pack of majors. So what prompted such strength from the rand? Read more

Bad day of the dollar

We were expecting at least one day of follow-through (actually more) on the green shoot to brown weed re-think, thinking it would benefit the dollar as it did on Monday, but no dice. Read more

Too Far, Too Fast for A Highly Connected Market?

The World Bank says contraction will be greater than expected; the global economy will slow by 2.9% rather than 1.7%. Read more

Being in the Market!

Some days I struggle for things to rave or rant about in this morning missive. Often, after bleeding at the keyboard for an hour or two, something seemingly worth saying pours on to the screen; but there are those days when only the keyboard is stained. Read more

Point/Counterpoint

Since I penned my Comdol falling off a BRIC wall piece the other day, the commodity currencies and oil have of course rallied nicely–they didn’t follow the plan. But, hope springs eternal in the world of investing, and hope also usually gets one into trouble … as we know. Read more

Lose the Correlation

The correlation between stocks and currencies is working; risk-appetite at its finest. But say we didn’t have this connection … say a 0.023% rise in the S&P 500 didn’t equate to the same 0.023% rise in the Australian dollar or euro or whatever. Read more

Humpty ComDols Sat on a Wall …

If you get a chance, we think Martin Wolfe’s piece in the FT today is worth the read, as it compares where we are in this global recession relative to where we were this time during the great depression. Read more

The Only Explanation is Cockeyed Perception

If I happened to know the German national anthem I’d likely break out in song right now before I finished typing up this piece. Oh, by the way, did you hear that German investor confidence blew past expectations in a sign that the recession is coming to a close? Read more

Euro Uht Oh!

Soaring unemployment in Europe, with still huge banking exposure, rising political tensions, fiscal concerns among the PIGS, a little country called Latvia that may be the canary in the coal mine for its Eastern European neighbors so similarly afflicted Read more

The $18,100,000,000 question!

The numbers are staggering…really incomprehensible…it’s the kind of stuff that if you made it up no one would believe you…I’m talking about the amount of money both the US and European Union have committed to this crisis: Read more

Imagiflation Takes It

Imagination inflation – a.k.a. imagiflation — is what’s needed in order to understand price action these days. Read more

Is the dollar flowing down a river of hope?

We were very much warming to the idea that most of the bad news seemed to be in the dollar–much of the key points posted above i.e. if we know it and you know it then it should already be in the price. Read more

An Inconvenient Leak

I was putting air into my bicycle tires the other day just to make sure I’d have a nice smooth ride when I hopped on. Read more

Premise check?

What if: 1. The world will be struggling with deflation instead of inflation? 2.US employment and housing experience another leg down? 3. China disappoints? 4. An Eastern European country defaults? 5. 5) The US is on track to at least muddle through better than Europe? Read more

Sentiment extreme?

It seems a lot is riding on this opportunity for more “green shoots” this morning. Most expect the dollar to tank on better than expected jobs news; but few seem to be thinking the dollar will rally on worse than expected news Read more

Careful Talking Your Book

Though I don’t spend too much time worrying about it, I often wonder where our esteemed leaders – financial and political – have their money hidden away. Where are their investments? Read more

A bit sick of it all…The dollar will remain the reserve currency. Period!

The Chinese leadership said so yesterday, despite their previous intermittent cat-calls for a new currency. Read more

Geithner Gives 100 PIPs

Ok, we’ve mentioned this once or twice already, but mostly we’ve just been joking. Now we’re starting to wonder if we should take this idea more seriously. Apparently a whole bunch of others are. Read more

Is capitulation to the trend near?

Stocks are climbing the proverbial wall of worry indeed, evidenced by this piece in the Financial Times this morning Read more