May 2009 Monthly Archive

Remaining open…not always easy

I always liked this quote attributed to John Maynard Keynes: “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” We know it’s true. The problem is that practical application of this is not always easy unless one has a very long investment time frame–and very deep pockets. Read more

Bring on the Inflation

“Markets are going to increasingly demand that there be some real green shoots” of an economic recovery, said Ethan Harris, co-head of U.S. economic research at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “They are going to have to step in at some point and put some more easing in.” Read more

Beauty in markets usually depends on your book…

Global healing a lat the credit market…it’s a beautiful thing… Global healing al la the stock market…it’s a beautiful thing… Global healing al la a new 2009 high in oil prices…it’s a beautiful thing… Read more

Missiles Fired, Exports Bombed, Confidence Targeted

Financial headlines are taking the opportunity of tying the risk-averse move this morning to North Korea. We’re told those friendly folks test fired some missiles — I think the term ‘nuclear’ was used too. Of course, any activity of this sort tends to remind markets of the instability there. Read more

Dollar Shrug! No surprise.

Is Mr. Geithner speaking today? He is becoming such a joy for dollar bears, as John Ross mentioned in his closing to CC yesterday. And the dollar doom and gloom crowd is smelling blood in the water; rightly so! Read more

Trading the News, Killing the Fundamentals

Chock it up to the instantaneous transmission of information; that’s the reason for such near-term, news-driven price action. It doesn’t matter who you are, if you want up-to-the-second news and prices, chances are you’re going to be able to find it somewhere very easily. Read more

Stocks and need for risk

I commented to a very smart and savvy friend via email yesterday: “Late move against the dollar today.” His response: “Investors need/want risk.” It is the type of response Luke Skywalker would have likely received from Yoda, in Star Wars. Read more

Don’t Let the Facts Get in the Way of a Good Story

The second ‘Key News’ headline I included above is the type of news item I consider in formulating a fundamental view of the economy and markets. Read more

16% Annualized Crushing…Does it matter?

On Friday, German reported some very nasty economic news–their economy fell at a 16% annualized rate during the first quarter of 2009. Read more

Another Jolt of Optimism!

Maybe we are just sticklers for detail. And maybe it’s simply rear-view mirror stuff we are worried about. But we keep having trouble with the use of the term “optimism” when two of the world’s biggest exporters–China and Germany–aren’t doing what they do best–export.  Read more

Poking at a little thing called demand, again.

Let me quick say that stocks and the US dollar have turned this week. Sure, I may have been a few days early in expecting the move; but in watching the reaction to the news so far this week, risk-appetite has a few extra days (at least) to go hungry. Read more

Dollar as global elixir

One of our main premises which our long-term dollar bull market called is based was on the core belief US dollar-based credit would not again flood the global to any degree we saw during the last dollar bear cycle (2001-2008) Read more

Seems Obvious

Jack noted it yesterday: the consensus anticipated a sell-off in stocks. I certainly didn’t disagree with all the headlines – indeed, over the last two weeks I’ve been harping on the potential (read: need) for stocks to sell off. Read more

Pullback time?

Usually, when everyone in the market is talking and thinking about something you tend not to get it. The Heisenberg principle of markets? Read more

Stress from the “stress test”

A friend called late yesterday to ask me what I thought about the “stress test.” I told him it seemed to be working, I was pretty stressed out by the market thanks to the carnival act we call the Treasury and Fed. Read more

It’s all about stress tests … and green shoots.

“It’s all about the stress tests,” exclaimed a Bloomberg news reporter this morning.

She’s got that right. So far the unofficially released results are “reassuring,” and the currencies (with exception of the US dollar, of course) mostly love it. Read more

That’s nothing…

John Ross and I were discussing what a “$35 billion funding gap”, as its being report, really meant for Bank of America; JR said, “Heck, that’s like the cost of a McDonald’s cheese burger to our government these days.” Read more

Juggling Risk

Juggling is a rather simple skill. But it’s impressive nonetheless. Perhaps the appeal is in its inherent uncertainty – the number of juggled items exceeding the number of hands doing the juggling. Read more

Some Euro concern rising?

We got a nasty European Commission downgrade of growth per key news above; plus this morning from Wolfgang Münchau, writing in the Financial Times: Read more

USDJPY Weekly

Zoom-zoom if the fundamentals of falling trade surplus, deflation, and rising unemployment become the drives. Read more