April 2009 Monthly Archive

Amped-Up Consumer = Amped-Up Market!

One of the news headlines above notes the optimism that can be taken from yesterday’s worse-than-expected headline report on US Q1 GDP. Enough said, but I’ll keep going anyway … Read more

Swine flu day three!

BLT sandwich lovers everywhere are rejoicing; those lock-limit down in bellies have likely lost their appetites; but it seems, on day three of the swine flu, stock and currency traders have definitely regained theirs. Read more

As charts go, the buck looks better than stocks …

This is one of those times when we’d like a straight answer; we’re likely not going to get one, though … Read more

Method in QE Madness!

Liquidity is the mother’s milk for stocks. Quantitative Easing is providing lots of milk, it seems. Read more

Far from over!

This falls into the category that it ain’t over till it’s over! Read more

Second-Derivative Optimism; Plus, Euro Climbs a Wall of Worry

In our Currency Strategist newsletter last week I discussed a growing obsession with the second derivative as it pertains to economics. Read more

Hope springs eternal

Japan reported its first annual trade deficit in 28 years. But today’s Bloomberg headline regarding the release of recent exports numbers from Japan gave us this: Read more

Emerging Markets to Begin Out-Underperforming

A quick note to start, the US Dollar Index broke above key resistance yesterday like a hot knife through butter. Next target appears to be 8900-9000. Read more

Aussie Deflation?

The Aussie is getting hammered this morning on news producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.4% last quarter; consensus estimates were a 0.6% gain. Read more


CB’s whacking Their Currencies Today. The two key central banks in Europe decided to knock their currencies down a few pegs this morning… Read more

Did somebody say “Decouple”?

As the first headline above reveals, China grew at 6.1% in the first quarter. That number is slightly below expectations and it’s lower than Q4 2008 (6.8%). Read more

Deflation bite!

The risk appetite trade was progressing nicely until news of US deflation hit the wires. Maybe now those so-called analysts who believe inflation is solely about money will finally see the light. Nahhh…. Read more

Partying While We Can on the Dollar’s Dime

Feel free to start dusting off those champagne bottles now – it’s sounding like we’re going to have something to celebrate this coming New Year’s Eve. Read more

China lifting emerging markets…

Increasingly it appears China is defying the skeptics (and we have been major skeptics). There is evidence (some may say flimsy but no matter) China’s stimulus is working. Read more

Sifting through the smiles, bad news still concerns me …

There’s a steady stream of analysts now taking their chance at calling a bottom for stock markets. Read more

The dollar’s Achilles Heel?

If you have been reading our daily missives you probably know that we’ve dubbed the problems in central and eastern Europe as the Achilles Heel for the euro as these problems can easily be transmitted into big trouble for European banking. Read more

Bad News: In or Not-Yet-In?

What’s the story? Is bad news priced into the markets? More specifically, is the crummy potential for first quarter US earnings season priced into markets? Read more

Gold below a key level–dollar chasing or leading…

Now that gold has slipped below seeming near-term chart support at $893; is the next level at 858 in the cards? Read more

G20: Declare victory and party hard!

A new world order has emerged. Well, Mr. Gordon Brown said so! Read more

World Leaders Tell Us What They Think We Want to Hear

Rumors around the G-20 so far seem to be leaning towards positive. No doubt, expectations had been set very low. Not surprising to us, for several reasons. Among them … Read more

Is trade leading crude and comdols?

A reader sent an email the other day asking us if we could stop being so depressing in Currency Currents. I told him we’d try. Read more