November 2008 Monthly Archive

Dollar Safe Haven? Really!

As every trader with some longevity knows the first question you should ask the moment a trade is made is this: Where am I wrong? And that question needs to be repeated hundreds of times in your head throughout the trade in order to stay open to new information; that’s because your objectivity will always be ever so slightly tilted toward your current position. Read more

Can we muster a 2-day stock rally?

Yesterday looked like another day foreshadowing a decent dollar correction on the bounce higher in stocks. This morning we wake to a stronger dollar again….hmmm…and of course “new” concerns about stocks, one story we saw read. Read more

Dollars Bulls Now Owe It to Tight Coupling

I received an email from a reader that contained an interesting fact: Seven separate assets currently maintain an 85% correlation (or better) with the S&P 500 over the last six months. Read more

Uninspired Moves in a Meandering Market

Last week I touched on the potential end to the sideways US dollar correction. Then all of a sudden some unidentified reckless group came in to buy stocks and keep them from finishing at lows not seen since 2003. Read more

Case against the Euro vs. US$ still!

1) Still overvalued on a Purchasing Power Parity basis against the dollar 2) Interest rate differential to shrink as ECB catches up to the Fed….. Read more

von Mises doesn’t think much of ZIRP!

ZERO INTEREST RATE POLICY (ZIRP) seems to be in the works amongst a whole host of central banks we know and love. But haven’t we seen this movie before? And doesn’t it end badly? Read more

Defining the Correction, and Finding Its End!

Jack’s been running around speaking at various currency tours and seminars this year. And there’s one line he likes to use when conveying the uncertainty of trading in any market … Read more

China to the rescue–maybe! And ChartView

China’s new fiscal stimulus package is receiving rave reviews across the board this morning. Bond prices lower, stocks higher, oil higher, gold higher and the dollar getting whacked–it’s déjà vu all over again for the risk appetite crowd. Read more

Central Banks in Europe Exciting This Market

Today is interest rate day! That is, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank culminate their most recent monetary policy discussions and announce changes to their benchmark interest rates. Read more

We know it’s never easy and there is no Holy Grail. But…

…we are big believers that after following the chain of price action, sooner or later, it all comes back in some way to the rate of interest. Interest rates are the core of all things financial, though the link may be seemingly distorted at times. Read more

That Day is Finally Here

November 4, 2008: Some of us might have been waiting for this day longer than others. Some of us may have been clamoring for it, while some of us may have been dreading its arrival. Either way, that day is here and a major change could be in order. That’s simply because … Read more

Risk Aversion Ebbs This Morning…Comdol Time?

Ebb in risk aversion means a flow of risk appetite by definition. And risk appetite may mean it’s time for commodities, which have been body slammed, to make a decent correction; maybe of the multi-week variety. Read more