I couldn’t close out 2015 strong as I missed a lot of great forex trades and left pips on the table because of my risk averse nature. Here’s a quick review of my fourth quarter blog performance.
Basic Forex Trading Stats
Total Number of Trades Ideas: 11
Breakeven/No Trade: 5
Win % (winning trades / triggered trades): 18.18%
Average Risk per Trade: 0.43%
Average Winning Trade in %: +0.28%
Average Losing Trade in %: -0.38%
Largest Drawdown: -1.00%
Q4 Total Realized Profit / Loss in %: -1.30%
- Often right in directional bias, but too conservative with trade plan/management. Out of my 11 trade ideas, 7 of them turned out to be correct in terms of moves that extended beyond a week or longer after the trade. GBP/NZD short and GBP/AUD short were both nice winners, but I cut too quickly because of the souring sentiment on commodities and left tons of pips on the table. As far as those “no trades/breakevens,” always waiting for pullbacks definitely hurt as they all went on to move hundreds of pips, which makes sense since the majority of them were long yen biased (CAD/JPY shorts and GBP/JPY shorts) and there was a strong global risk aversion bias.
- Didn’t cut losers quick enough. I let all of my losing trades reach max loss, but given that a few of them were only 0.25% max risk, I wanted to give the trades as much room as possible to turn around. Looking back though, there are definitely times where it made sense to just close after an economic event. The one that sticks out the most was the loss in my EUR/GBP short trade, where the market rallied after the ECB announced further QE policies. It actually took a while for the market to get to my stop level, so I could have closed earlier to limit my max loss to improve overall performance.
Overall, my weak performance is all about trade management. Because I follow the fundamentals, I think I’m doing well in picking directional bias, but structuring my trades and adjustments still needs a lot of work. Mainly, I gotta stop trying to get the perfect price and I need to be more patient with holding onto winners.
This brings my 2015 blog performance to a win rate of 48.15%, but a loss of -2.58% or -3.75 R:R. Missing great trades (ten total) and not letting winners run because of my risk averse nature was probably the biggest variable to overcoming my small losses. With all that said, I do feel more comfortable taking and managing risk, so I do look forward to making adjustments to my trade processes and taking on 2016!
That’s all I got for now forex friends…How did you do in Q4 2015? Please share your thoughts in the comment box below. Thanks for stopping by, have a safe and happy holiday, and good luck in 2016!