Forex Weekly Watch: Mar. 28 – Apr. 1, 2016

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart

Market volatility fell ahead of this weekend’s holiday, creating consolidation patterns among the crosses this week.  This is definitely the case for EUR/JPY which into a pip range tighter than previous weeks.

With price action barely budging, my thoughts from last week still hold in that the market is deciding whether to bounce higher or break below the rising trendline. For now, it looks like the short-term trend is to the upside and we could get the volatility needed as forex traders come back from holiday, but we’re probably in a holding pattern until then.

  • WO: 126.38
  • Top WATR: 127.66
  • Bottom WATR: 125.11
  • PWH: 127.16
  • PWL: 124.68

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart

GBP/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart

Guppy bulls got a punch to the gut last week thanks to weak inflation readings from the U.K., making the head and shoulders pattern that I pointed out next week fully formed on the one hour chart.

Now, I’m seeing a pattern of lower highs and possibly a break of the support area between 158.50 to 160.00 in the short-term, especially if resistance comes in now that the market is testing the falling trendline. But much like EUR/JPY above, this can bounce in either direction, so it’s prudent to probably hold until forex traders full come back.

  • WO: 161.60
  • Top WATR: 164.01
  • Bottom WATR: 159.20
  • PWH: 164.00
  • PWL: 159.05

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 1-Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP 1-Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP couldn’t make a full move back to the bottom of the range I pointed out to last week, instead popping higher after the weak U.K. inflation data I mentioned above. The pair is still in that range, but with pair making higher “highs” and “lows” since the beginning of March, it’s not out of the question to think of a potential upside breakout of strong previous resistance around .7900.

If that is the case, we’ve still got the major psychological level of .8000 just ahead, so it might be best to wait for a pullback before going long or just watching out for resistance on a test of the area between .7900 – .8000

  • WO: .7902
  • Top WATR: .7978
  • Bottom WATR: .7826
  • PWH: .7946
  • PWL: .7788

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