Forex Weekly Watch: Nov. 16 – 20, 2015

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart

Last week, forex volatility dried up in EUR/JPY and the market actually reacted well to the usual top and bottom range levels, especially the PWL.  This is forming a descending triangle pattern, which is often looked at as a sell opportunity on the break of that strong support around 131.50.

To open this week, we saw a gap down (likely on risk aversion flows after the terrorist attacks in Paris) below that support, a little bit of a move lower, and bounce back to the week open levels.  Because of recent geopolitical events and the continued downtrend, I’m looking at the area between the previous support to the confluence of descending trendline/moving averages, and top WATR as a potential draw for sellers.

  • WO: 131.28
  • Top WATR: 132.50
  • Bottom WATR: 130.06
  • PWH: 133.21
  • PWL: 131.49

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart

GBP/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart

Volatility also dried up in Guppy, but that didn’t stop it from making small moves higher last week. The pair is currently trading in a channel, and until it breaks the lower boundary (and even that major psychological area of 185.00) I’m staying bullish on the pair. Risk aversion is a concern at the moment with the aforementioned terrorist attacks in Paris, so I’ll stay in watch mode to see if the bottom of the channel is tested and how the market reacts to that area.

  • WO: 186.20
  • Top WATR: 187.93
  • Bottom WATR: 184.48
  • PWH: 187.51
  • PWL: 185.39

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 1-Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP 1-Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP is creating an hourly chart similar to EUR/JPY above, but didn’t have quite the gap down at the week open.  I’m staying with the current downtrend on this pair by looking at a pullback to the top WATR/declining trendline/moving averages/minor resistance leves as a possible area to draw in sellers, as well as a break of the strong support around the minor psychological level of .7050 as a breakout/momentum opportunity. The forex calendar is pretty busy with top tier events from both the eurozone and the U.K., so the odds are good we’ll get some volatility and make this a pair to watch.

  • WO: .7052
  • Top WATR: .7125
  • Bottom WATR: .6979
  • PWH: .7154
  • PWL: .7041

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