Forex Weekly Watch: Sept. 28 – Oct. 2, 2015

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart

Strong price action in the euro last week: first a big dip to the downside to nearly retest the early September low and then a bounce to nearly close the week where it started.  I’m still biased to the downside with the lower “double top” patterns, but the higher low has me thinking the market could be consolidating around the major psychological level of 135.00.  I’ll wait for another “higher low” before considering the picture a triangle formation, so for now I’m going to wait and see if the combination of the falling trendline, top WATR and PWH draw in sellers if retested.

  • WO: 135.19
  • Top WATR: 136.21
  • Bottom WATR: 133.32
  • PWH: 136.13
  • PWL: 133.16

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart

GBP/JPY 1-Hour Forex Chart

GBP/JPY saw a really big downside move last week, mainly on broad British pound weakness, but also a little bit of yen strength due to broad risk aversion sentiment in the global markets. I threw up a Fib on the newest swing move lower, and I can see that the top WATR level lines up with the 200 SMA to potentially form a resistance area of interest.  So I’ll be looking there to potentially play short, and from the long side, the major psychological handle of 180.00 isn’t too far away and highly likely to draw in buy orders.

  • WO: 183.08
  • Top WATR: 185.23
  • Bottom WATR: 180.93
  • PWH: 187.34
  • PWL: 181.63

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 1-Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP 1-Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP was shaken up by a rise in volatility, but the consolidation pattern seems to remain the same, albeit a little bit wider. The very top of the range was retested (and held) last week, but not before the major psychological level of .7200 was tested and held strongly as support. I’m still a big fan of shorting EUR/GBP and those top levels look the same, but with such strong consolidation behavior, I think we’ll likely see buyers start to step in between the .7200 – .7250 area.

  • WO: .7361
  • Top WATR: .7437
  • Bottom WATR: .7286
  • PWH: .7410
  • PWL: .7197

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