Forex Weekly Watch: June 29 – July 3, 2015

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

With the Greek debt crisis deepening this weekend, it was no surprise that we saw big gaps at this week’s forex open.  EUR/JPY was probably one of the bigger gaps, as expected with the euro taking the brunt of the reaction to Greece getting closer to leaving the euro, but also broad yen strength, typical during global risk aversion situations.

Let’s see if that gap closes, and if gets anywhere near the 137.00 (between the PWL and top WATR), you could see sellers hop back in if the Greek story remains bleak. These events are unprecedented so there’s no telling how far low this can go if the selling resumes, but look for the previous swing lows around 134.00 for a shift in market supply.

  • WO: 135.02
  • Top WATR: 136.80
  • Bottom WATR: 133.24
  • PWH: 140.65
  • PWL: 137.67

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Forex Chart

As mentioned in my thoughts for EUR/JPY, the Japanese yen was a big winner in the knee jerk reaction to the latest Greek developments. But it looks like this proved to be a buying opportunity for Guppy traders, who hopped in on a retest of a rising trendline and the Fibonacci retracement area I drew last week.

The market is now testing the PWL, so that rally may stall here and possibly even turn back to the downside once European and U.S. traders get a chance to price in this weekend’s events.

  • WO: 192.35
  • Top WATR: 194.17
  • Bottom WATR: 190.54
  • PWH: 195.89
  • PWL: 193.47

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

EUR/GBP 1 Hour Forex Chart

There’s another big gap in EUR/GBP, and like EUR/JPY, a gap close may be the setup to be the one to watch for this week.  But given Sterling’s relative strength lately, any pullback may draw in more sellers as soon as .7050, all the way up to the top WATR level/MaPs level of .7100. Scaling into a position may be an entry technique to consider if you want to be prudent with these unprecedented times.

  • WO: .7018
  • Top WATR: .7099
  • Bottom WATR: .6938
  • PWH: .7211
  • PWL: .7076

Risk Disclosure
Q1 2015 Trading Performance Review
Read about my trading framework
Follow me on MeetPips.com
Follow me on Twitter
Like my Facebook page